Interesting "Ace on the River" hand

blumpkin22 · #1 08-11-2005, 04:02 AM

This stud hand was taken from Barry Greenstein's "Ace on the River."

The 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] brings it in. A player with the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] completes and you raise with (Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img])Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. A strong player to your left cold calls with the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] up. The original raiser, a weak predictable player, reraises. It seems obvious he has two aces or two kings in the hole.

You make open queens on fourth street. You bet and maintain the betting lead the rest of the way. On sixth the boards read as follows.

Weak player:
(xx) 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Strong player:
(xx) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You:
(Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

You fill up with the 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the river. You bet, hoping that someone has improved. The strong player hesistates and calls, and the weak player raises. You...

Think carefully, and put each player on a hand.

bigredlemon · #2 08-11-2005, 04:13 AM

3bet. It seems like a very easy 3bet to me.

Strong player has a probable two pair at worst or lower boat at best.
The only hand that the weak player can have that beats you is 3 fives down for quad fives. While it's possible, it's just too unlikely. he'd have to show me his quads for me not to bet this. I do believe the weak player is very likely to have started with rolled fives, and probably more likely to have that than KK according to the read, but I think we'd be losing too much value flat calling b/c he could be betting a lower full house or trip aces.

beta1607 · #3 08-11-2005, 10:54 AM

I think its somewhat close between 3 betting and going for the over call but I think that 3 betting is best even if there is a good chance the good player will fold.

The best possible hand for the weak player is 5's full but more likely hit trip K's or A's which you have crushed.

The strong player has good hand since he has been sticking around after you paired your queens possible aces or kings up or rolled 8's for the boat?

Very interesting situation, any other stuff like this in that book? Results?

jon_1van · #4 08-11-2005, 11:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The strong player has good hand since he has been sticking around after you paired your queens possible aces or kings up or rolled 8's for the boat?

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like the strong player would fold pocket AA or KK when you spike the Q on 4th. It just won't make sense to continue if your other pair cards could be dead in the weak players hand. So when he cold calls 2 and then calls when you spike the Q it seems like the only hand he'd call this far with is rolled 8s.

The problem I see is that why doesn't he raise when he makes his open pair?

Roland · #5 08-11-2005, 11:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The problem I see is that why doesn't he raise when he makes his open pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because the weak player is drawing dead at that point (unless he was rolled in which case he‘s drawing to one out). Why not take the safe money?

I read the book, so I know the answer.
Think again, everybody! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

beta1607 · #6 08-11-2005, 11:29 AM

We are not even close?

Roland · #7 08-11-2005, 12:07 PM

You’re close.

BTirish · #8 08-11-2005, 12:27 PM

Under normal circumstances, this'd be a three bet every time. I can't see what hand the strong player would have other than rolled 8's where he would stick around this long... so my guess is that he made quad 8's. He calls to potentially cap the betting with both players, following a raise by the weak player. Keeping the weak player's money in is probably +EV over all--if the weak player hasn't improved, he'll just fold to the single bet, costing the strong player 1 or 3 bets. But if he has a read and knows the weak player will at least call, he's lost 2 at most. But if the weak player raises, the strong player can potentially win a total of 8 bets. So if the strong player feels it's more than some percentage X likely that the weak player will raise, he can potentially win a lot of bets.

In the moment, there's obviously no getting away from the hand. I have no doubt that I would three bet this one every time--only one-outers can beat you.

jon_1van · #9 08-11-2005, 12:56 PM

I don't think there's a chance in hell that a solid player would call on the river with quad 8s. There is little reason for the solid player to believe the poor player will raise (aka hit trips A or K...or be willing to be a rivered 2 pair for value).

And since the solid player shouldn't expect the action to open up again he should raise and hope the QQ guy filled/will make a crying call.

The only time I can see a solid player calling with Quads is when he thinks you are so good that you could laydown trips Queens and possible a FH.

BTirish · #10 08-11-2005, 01:21 PM

Eh, you're most likely right. But as soon as someone says it's a book hand, I start to think of some weird reasoning for how a hand is played.

What do you think the strong player holds? Like I said, I would three-bet this almost regardless... but the strong player might be relying on the weak player getting into a raising war with me, and he could just follow along and take the pot away.