Does anyone like this river value bet?

[El Tigre]

7 Card Stud High ($2/$4), Ante $0.25, Bring-In $1 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.75 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 4: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises

4th Street - (3.25 SB)

Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

5th Street - (2.63 BB)

Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets

6th Street - (4.63 BB)

Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets

River - (6.63 BB)

Seat 6: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___calls
Hero: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets

Total pot: (8.63 BB)


Okay I asked some friends about my river value bet. I felt that the guy was playin Kings very passively. I had seen this guy play a big pair very very slowly when a bigger card raised. He would call all the way to the river if he improved to top pair or not. When my semi bluff failed I was ready to give it up on the river untill my two pair hit. I thought that a value bet was in order. Seeing as a raise was very unlikely (only if he improved to trips or better) The worst that could happen was I lose one more bet. But more likely was I would gain a bet on the river with his unimproved kings. Anyone agree or should I have checked it?

The more i look back the less i like the way i played the hand. I'm pretty sure i played this way too agressively with just a pair of sevens

[BTirish]

If nothing else, try to keep your reasoning for how you play consistent in a single hand. If you played the 77A against the likely split K's because you know he has a tendency to call it down to the river in such situations (I'll discuss what I think about this reasoning in a second), then you can't also expect him to fold on 5th or 6th. Given your read, you were definitely playing it too fast.

If this were 7A7, you'd have a lot more room to play. You could raise on 4th for a free card. You will likely get paid off if you make aces up.

77A is not anywhere near as valuable against xxK as 7A7. You're getting reverse implied odds, because if you do pair the A after leading out the whole way, you probably won't get paid off. If he does call you, he probably has you beat. So I agree with your feelings on the matter--you played this too aggressively with the weaker holding. If you want to play a hand like 77A against xxK, if you ever do, do so against an overly tight opponent, not a loose passive one.

As for the value bet... it's only a value bet if you are more than 50% sure you have the best hand. I don't see how you can be that sure here, since he plays passively and would have called it down with anything. Furthermore, he's more likely to call if he's made K's up. You risk nothing by checking, and Mr. Passive will probably check behind.

[kschellenger]

[ QUOTE ]

i played this way too agressively with just a pair of sevens


[/ QUOTE ]

hehe, I agree.

I don't think he has kings, unless he's a really passive player. Wouldn't you think he would complete if he had kings? anyway, I like the bet. If he called you all the way WITH kings, he'll call this and if he believes you have aces and made kings up it's doubtful he'd raise in case you made aces up. If he was on a lower concealed pair you've probably got him and unless he made trips you won't be reraised.

You should change your name to Le Tigre.

[Andy B]

People who limp with Kings also tend to limp with crap, so I don't mind you getting a little aggressive here. I think, however, that you should probably check sixth and the river. It is unlikely you're leading on sixth, and very unlikely that he will fold. Two scraggly pair aren't quite enough for me to value-bet on the river most of the time. The good news is that the other guy is very unlikely to raise with anything that doesn't have you crushed.

[Bartholow]

If after you checked he would value bet kings up, and you would feel you had to call, I think your bet is good. If you're pretty sure he's passive enough to check a better hand, OR that if he bets you can fold, then you should check.