Pot Equity Guess

Rickjohn · #1 08-10-2005, 12:07 PM

When UTG+1 bets on the river I figure he has me beat, but I'm not sure. I'm guessing I have about a 10% chance of winning so I call (10% of 17.5 BB is 1.75BB and it costs me 1 BB to call). Is this the right way to think about it?

\Paradise Poker 0.02/0.04 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.02.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP3 calls, CO (poster) calls, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (10.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, CO folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (15.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero calls, MP3 folds, SB calls, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 18.50 BB

MrWookie47 · #2 08-10-2005, 12:18 PM

You mostly have the right idea, although 10% might be a bit generous. The pot is 16.5 BB when it gets to you, not 17.5 BB, which happens when SB overcalls behind you. The pot is still pretty big, though, but the presence of so many people yet to act behind you makes calling and folding pretty close.

gharp · #3 08-10-2005, 12:19 PM

Yes, this is a good way to think about it. It's definitely not a spot to fold in. But I also think this is a classic go-for-overcalls situation. It's likely you have a better hand than UTG+1 -- the last card is a complete blank, which completes 0 draws so unless he's been calling along with 22 or something like <shudder> 72o, you're in good shape. I would guess he's connected with the board and is thinking you've whiffed with unimproved overcards.

If you raise you'll likely fold out more than one of the players behind you and a reraise would be unpleasant. So calling looks like the right play here.

adsman · #4 08-10-2005, 01:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you raise you'll likely fold out more than one of the players behind you and a reraise would be unpleasant. So calling looks like the right play here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually I think that a raise is the right play. What if the sb has a weak T, where he would call a bet but not 2? Why on earth would you want overcalls here? You want overcalls when you have a strong hand not a marginal one. Raise and fold to a 3 bet.

gharp · #5 08-10-2005, 01:57 PM

Oops...I missed the T on board. I thought we were holding an overpair.

With an overpair, I think calling is best but that T does change things. I'm honestly not sure what to think now when I look at this. It would help to know a thing or two about the players involved.

I'm guessing that, at these limits, someone holding a T will call for 8 cents if they'd call for 4. But that doesn't mean it's not the right play. If you think there's a better chance you can beat UTG+1 than the players behind you, then raise it up.

Mooski · #6 08-11-2005, 06:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm guessing that, at these limits, someone holding a T will call for 8 cents if they'd call for 4. But that doesn't mean it's not the right play. If you think there's a better chance you can beat UTG+1 than the players behind you, then raise it up.

[/ QUOTE ]That's pretty much my take on it too, although I think that SB may have the T as he hasn't been too sure all along that he's winning this hand, he's called straight through it.

jmn32 · #7 08-10-2005, 12:21 PM

Yes, the pot at the river is 16.5BB when it gets to you. Hence you must win it (100 / 17.5) = 5.71% of the time to make the call correct. The situation is a little more complicated than that in this case as there are people to act behind you.

As it goes, without reads (and even with, actually) I think this is a very very easy call. No-one has shown any aggression, and it's difficult to see how the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] has helped anyone - the size of the pot makes this an easy call.

The real question is whether to raise the river to drive out the callers behind, but I can't see anyone folding a hand that beats you.

By the way, Pot Equity is not really what we're tlking about at this point, it is simply the chance that you're going to win the hand.

MrWookie47 · #8 08-10-2005, 12:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, Pot Equity is not really what we're tlking about at this point, it is simply the chance that you're going to win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, isn't that exactly what pot equity is? The chance you win the hand?

bozlax · #9 08-10-2005, 12:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By the way, Pot Equity is not really what we're tlking about at this point, it is simply the chance that you're going to win the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm, isn't that exactly what pot equity is? The chance you win the hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn, Wook beat me to it. But, I think my snide answer was more complete.

MrWookie47 · #10 08-10-2005, 12:37 PM

Actually, you forgot to subtract the percentage of the time your opponents draw out on you. You were more polite, but "the chance that you win the hand" is actually a little more complete.

I guess I'll add a little more, too, to build on what you said. Bozlax is correct when he said that if your equity in the pot is greater than what it costs to continue, you play on. Additionally, if your equity percentage is greater than your fair share equity (one hundred divided by the # of players in the hand), then you should bet and raise for value.