Getting Raised on the Turn...

[fizzleboink]

...is something I've been struggling with. I've taken a stab at 2/4 on party and have so far broken even over 2k hands. But I'm not here to whine about that. The recurring theme over those 2k hands is how I handle being raised on the turn. The first 1k had me run really well, being raised on the turn quite rarely. The second 1k had me being raised on the turn with a much higher frequency, and my BB/100 plummets.

As you probably know, being raised on the turn usually means 2-pair or better. The thing is I usually have something like TPGK when this occurs. Here's a hypothetical example (assume these are typical 2/4 party players):

Pre-flop: I have KQ in the CO, 10 handed.
UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="red">I raise</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.5 SB) Q95r (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+2 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="red">I bet</font>, BB calls, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 8r (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, <font color="red">I bet</font>, BB folds, <font color=" red">MP3 raises</font>, I...

HATE these. The pot size is now 8 BB, and I will probably have to call a bet on the river as well. So I'm getting odds of 4.5:1 to call down. I would say I'm behind about 90% of the time and still ahead 10% of the time.

Of that 90% of the time while behind I think I'm drawing dead 10% of the time to a straight, 60% of the time he has 2-pair, and 20% of the time he'll have a set. I've got 2 outs to trips, and 8 or 9 outs (some hidden) to hit 2-pair.

So let's see, .1(0) + .2(2) + .6(8) = 5.2 outs
I should probably see the turn since I have 8:1 immediate odds, 9:1 implied, there's a small chance I could still be ahead, and folding here could make people take more shots at me later.

So I call, river bricks.

MP3 bets, I...

call? now I'm getting 10:1 to see a showdown. I only need to be good here 9% of the time to make this profitable. SSHE advocates calling I believe because people will apparantly bluff more than 10% of the time, especially on the internet.

MP3 shows me two pair, and I curse and think I just wasted 2 BB's I could have saved.

Am I thinking about this the right way? How do you guys handle being raised on the turn with top pair? I'll usually fold if I have a shitty kicker and the pot isn't too big, but it depends.

That turn card didn't help many draws. What if the board was two-tone and the turn made a flush possible? What if an over-card hit? I guess what I'm saying is, when the turn has just helped more draws, how does it affect your decision? I mean, there's a bigger chance you're behind now, but they're also good bluff cards too.

Do you guys call down most of the time? Fold the river UI? Fold right there? What conditions change your actions? What if it wasn't a C/R because you were OOP?

I feel so lost when this happens.

[fizzleboink]

Hmm is this concept so easy that it isn't even worth talking about in the micro's?

[aces_dad]

Actually I think this is a difficult situation which is why you haven't gotten a discussion yet.

A lot of this decision is based upon the read of villian. If they are tight and you're c/r or raised on the turn you often know, as you say, that they've gotten your TPTK beat. Against typical villians I'll call down from here but not love doing it. In a large field it's easier to fold in these scenarios but HU I tend to call down.

However there are also some villians I've seen who will c/r or raise the turn/river as bluff/semi bluffs, and it is important to note who will do this. I've been able to 3bet some villians who c/r the turn as a bluff based only upon the read, which I would not attempt against normal villians.

This is really a problem that all players encounter with no amazing defense. The best thing to combat this is really good hand reads which will come with time, more often than not your just calling these down in hopes of 2pring or tripin up yourself because your having a hrd time putting villan on a hand. If you are able to put him on a hand very easily which is sometimes the case, you need to caluclate your outs vs pot size. If anyone has a great solution, I cant wait to read it.

[fizzleboink]

[ QUOTE ]

However there are also some villians I've seen who will c/r or raise the turn/river as bluff/semi bluffs, and it is important to note who will do this. I've been able to 3bet some villians who c/r the turn as a bluff based only upon the read, which I would not attempt against normal villians.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. I'm always worried about this possibility which is why I gave myself a 10% chance of still being ahead in the example. Maybe 10% is too high, and is something you adjust based on the read. But I still hate to fold and to never know if he was just playing me or not. I've caught some villains with their pants down this way, and think about how close I came to folding.

[shadow29]

[ QUOTE ]
...Maybe 10% is too high...

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe 10% is too low.

[fizzleboink]

[ QUOTE ]
This is really a problem that all players encounter with no amazing defense. The best thing to combat this is really good hand reads which will come with time, more often than not your just calling these down in hopes of 2pring or tripin up yourself because your having a hrd time putting villan on a hand. If you are able to put him on a hand very easily which is sometimes the case, you need to caluclate your outs vs pot size. If anyone has a great solution, I cant wait to read it.

[/ QUOTE ]

So do you always fold the river when you don't improve to 2-pair or a set? That's 1 BB saved in what I think is a very common occurance.

[deception5]

I run into this situation a lot as well and it's certainly annoying. You can't fold to the raise on the turn even if you know the opponent has 2 pair because you have 5-8 outs against that. So the real question becomes whether or not the opponent is bluffing on the river. And you probably have to call it because 1 in 10 times you either have a better hand or the opponent was completely bluffing.

Lousy situation though, I'd love to hear an opposing viewpoint!

[fizzleboink]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...Maybe 10% is too high...

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe 10% is too low.

[/ QUOTE ]

What number would you give as a default to a player with a post-flop aggression factor of around 1? Maybe I'm just skewed because of the 50 BB's I lost to this last night.

[tiltaholic]

i've been thinking about this hand a lot. reads are very important here. usually i can't bring myself to fold. when i get shown 2 pair i always feel dumb and like i paid off knowing i was behind. i also will usually find myself saying, this guy is an unknown i should call it down.

however, when he checkraises the turn and leads the river this is NOT a bluff 10% of the time. yet i still call it... mainly hoping it's TPWK or something.

i'm going to write more about this later.