Folding Equity in 5-5 Live Game

5-5 NL at Foxwoods. One limper, MP3 raises to $30, I re-raise to $100 in CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Button calls. Blinds fold, limper calls, original raiser calls. $410 in pot.

I have $1300 at the start of the hand, button has me covered. I've never played with button before and have only been in the game for 30 minutes, so assume average player at this game, which is to say, not very good, a tendency to be a little weak-tight.

Flop comes 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

The two players ahead of me check. I check. Button bets $500. Two players fold. My action?

My question is this. What percentage of the time do you think I can get the button to fold here (assuming he is an average player) if I check-raise all-in? (I can make it $700 more to call with a $2100 pot.) I should note that I feel very strongly that he has QQ-TT given his line so far.

If he in fact has QQ-TT I need him to fold at lease 1/3 of the time to show profit, and I felt that a typical player at the Foxwoods game would fold that often. Thoughts?

[ahnuld]

After checking the flop, I think it would be very unlikly that villan would fold QQ here. I think you need to give up since you checked. Why didnt you bet? normally you could take ti down right there

I didn't bet because I did not think a bet would take it down against the button's QQ-TT whereas a check-raise might. Obviously it's difficult to say one way or the other, but if I bet $300 (for argument's sake) I think button calls or raises (unless he also has AK, which is a possibility I should have considered but did not).

[ahnuld]

That is a good level of thinking but it depends on how smart your opponents are. A thinking player may fold his QQ sening you trapped him on the flop but a bad player will not. As well, how do you bet this flop when you do have AA KK? If you check, then I can see this play working, but if you bet out, then this wont work.

[thabadguy]

I dont think he folds jj or better here. If you want a fold a lead 3 bet would be better.

Do you mean a $300 continuation bet on the flop? You think it is reasonably likely an average player with JJ will fold to that?

[sekrah]

An idea..

Call the $500.. You're 2:1 to improve. If you hit one of your 15 cards to improve your hand (A,K,diamond) push the turn.

Even if you miss those 15 cards, If he has something like 10-10 or J-J, he might think he's being trapped by a big hand and slow down and give you a look at the river as well. If he was on a bluff, he's slowing down as well. You could fire a bet at the river if a scare card (diamond) hits.

Just a thought. $500 seems like an overbet to me.. Doesn't look like he wants to get called.

[fanmail]

He has already bet almost 1/2 of your stack. The only way he is folding is if he is bluffing. I don't think an overpair or something like K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is going to fold to $700 more.

[captZEEbo1]

nothing is folding except pure bluff. They'll just put you on AKs and call with anything.

[BobboFitos]

I dont have any comment on the hand, but I want to comment on a misguided notion:

[ QUOTE ]
If he was on a bluff, he's slowing down as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's not really true. All too often I call a big bet (only beating a bluff) thinking if he was bluffing he would then shut down, so I only have to invest that street's worth of money then we can showdown, and if he bets again, I know my hand is not good.

But that is a player type. There are some who are incapable of taking the 2nd barrel. I dont fire the 2nd barrel often.

The point, though, is that most bluffers wont slow down unless they hit a specific card that they're afraid hit you, ie. a scare card. And even then some of them surge forth.

So calling a street hoping they wont bet if they're bluffing is erroneous.