Party $400 NL - Is This Obvious?

Billy Liar · #1 08-09-2005, 10:44 AM

Been getting a good kicking recently, and finding these kinds of decisions more difficult. What do you do here, and what's the plan for the rest of the hand?

Edit: Forgot to say - played less than 10 hands w/ villain, so nothing known about him.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 4 handed) converter

SB ($372.40)
BB ($397.40)
Hero ($391.80)
Button ($2542.58)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls $4, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($12) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $8, SB folds, BB calls $8.

Turn: ($28) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB raises to $75,

fuzzbox · #2 08-09-2005, 10:53 AM

I dont know if I bet that turn after a check-call like that. I have to fold the check-raise unless I can consitently get the rest of his stack when I fill up.

Check call is often flush. If you check turn, he might overplay it when you fill up, or he could bluff the river with no flush.

LetYouDown · #3 08-09-2005, 10:57 AM

I'd bet more on the flop and check behind on the turn, based on the flop action as it played out. Make him pay for the worst possible turn card imaginable. Every draw got there...but this is semi-player dependent. Could this be two pair? As it stands, I'd call against players where implied odds are good and fold against players who won't pay you off if you fill.

ahnuld · #4 08-09-2005, 11:07 AM

Id call in a second and see what he does on turn if another club comes or the board pairs. I dont think hes checking if the board pairs becuase this doent seem like a set. If im villan, and you call, Im putting you on something like A k [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or a pair and flush draw, not a set.So if the board pairs, I see him check calling 75 or leading into you and calling a small raise.

Marlow · #5 08-09-2005, 11:20 AM

You just barely have implied odds to make the call. With a big bet like that, I'd say that there's a decent chance that he's stealing, tho. But he could just suck and be overbetting his made hand as well.

But in the final analysis, you have invested very little so far. Even though it might be +EV to call (but we don't know the player, so it's impossible to know for sure), the variance of the play is enormous. Too many x-factors. I'm prolly folding here.

Marlow

Billy Liar · #6 08-09-2005, 12:03 PM

Thanks for the replies so far.

I called the turn raise. I thought there was a decent chance he'd just flushed (or even straightened), and didn't want to continue a recent trend of being too aggro with very good hands & getting all-in against better ones. I also thought that if he had any of the 2 pairs (he's BB), he'd probably dump if I raised (maybe not AQ or AT). I must admit I didn't consider folding the set - I never have with cards to come unless I was certain of a better set being out. If he has the flush, I don't think he can fold a paired river for around pot size ($150), and I think that gives me my odds.

Anyhoo, river came:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 4 handed) converter

SB ($372.40)
BB ($397.40)
Hero ($391.80)
Button ($2542.58)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
Hero calls $4, 1 fold, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($12) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $8, SB folds, BB calls $8.

Turn: ($28) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $20, BB raises to $75, Hero calls $55.

River: ($178) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $100,

How now?

turnipmonster · #7 08-09-2005, 12:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But he could just suck and be overbetting his made hand as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

overbetting? he's laying better than 2:1, in what universe is this an overbet?

[ QUOTE ]

But in the final analysis, you have invested very little so far.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really hate saying this and it's been said a million times before, but all that matters is how much money is in the pot and how much you and your opponent have left. how much you have "invested" in the pot is irrelevant. if you were being sarcastic with this comment I am stupid, forgive me.

turnipmonster · #8 08-09-2005, 12:21 PM

well it's either move allin or call. of course he can make this bet with lots of hands that you beat, if he puts you on an ace he can expect you to at least call w/trips and so he can bet a flush or a straight for value here.

the opponent dependent question is will he fold less than a boat here if you raise. that really depends on how he plays and what he thinks of you more than anything else.

--turnipmonster

LetYouDown · #9 08-09-2005, 12:28 PM

Looks like a blocking bet with a flush, at first glance. Depends on the opponent. If he has the flush and is good, he'll lay down if you push. I'd push if you're still going with your flush read and you're pretty sure he'll pay you off. Any other raise seems inadequate.

luckOverSkill · #10 08-09-2005, 12:32 PM

Hmmmm... that turn card put you between a dog and a
lamp post!

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Having said that...

Villain has check called your pot sized bet and has
made a meaty check raise on the turn. So he must have
something. Best case scenario would be to have him on
top pair top kicker with one big club, or even two pair
with one big club. KJ is also possible. I would lean
toward a crying call here on the turn but I think
you may be behind.

But assuming we don't know what villain will do on
the turn, I would prefer to check the turn... you seem
to be committed to a showdown but you're not sure if
you're ahead. If you're beat you're going to end up
paying off more to the villain by betting and then
calling his raise.

As far as the river goes... call. I wouldn't raise.
I wouldn't do anything fancy here on the turn or river
given that you haven't seen too much of villain's play.