Where you at?

weevil · #1 08-09-2005, 12:32 AM

CO is 14.5/7/1.5/25WTSD over 120 hands
BB is 58/5/.8/35 over 120 hands

BB has something, probably decent. He doesn't go to showdown with crap that I've seen. CO also has not semi-bluffed since I sat down, and has had the goods on every showdown...

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, CO checks, Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, CO raises, Hero ... ?

Nick C · #2 08-09-2005, 12:43 AM

From the sounds of it (based on your reads), CO probably has a set or Q9s.

Your best play may be to fold, but I probably wouldn't.

I pay off too much, sometimes.

But he's checkraising the turn, and you haven't seen him semibluff.

It looks like you're probably in trouble.

toss · #3 08-09-2005, 12:48 AM

I'd raise PF. On the turn it looks like you're beat given your read of CO.

Malcom Reynolds · #4 08-09-2005, 12:58 AM

I normally raise preflop, although CO seems tight enough that limping KQo can't be all that bad either. Any read on the tightness of UTG+1?

Tough hand. It looks like a set but you are getting 11 to 1 on the turn. I guess AQ is possible but isn't that within the 7% pfr?

Moozh · #5 08-09-2005, 01:09 AM

This is a must raise pre-flop. You have a good hand, you have position, you also have the chance to get at least one of the blinds out. You're much better off playing for a 9sb pot 4 (or even 3) way than a 5sb pot 5 way in my opinion.

As for the rest, it would be a lot easier if you had raised pre-flop. Based on your description of CO, it seems like the answer is to fold. Unfortunately, since you didn't raise pre-flop, he may read you for being weaker than you are. Still, I'd say let it go.

private joker · #6 08-09-2005, 01:12 AM

Not raising PF is a large error. Folding the turn is pretty easy IMO. The smooth-call/checkraise line can virtually always beat TPTK and you don't even have TK.

weevil · #7 08-09-2005, 01:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I normally raise preflop, although CO seems tight enough that limping KQo can't be all that bad either. Any read on the tightness of UTG+1?

Tough hand. It looks like a set but you are getting 11 to 1 on the turn. I guess AQ is possible but isn't that within the 7% pfr?

[/ QUOTE ]

I forget what UTGs stats were, but you're right about CO. I'm not raising that against him limping in front of me. If he had folded, I'm sure I would've raised. Man, just reading the posts here for the first time in a while, people are going freaking nuts with pre and postflop aggression. I mean, yeah, that's the way to play, but not all the time [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Moozh · #8 08-09-2005, 01:16 AM

CO is 14/7. With a 7 pfr, he's raising anything that beats KQ. With another limper already in, it's very likely he has a speculative hand (like QJs-Q9s). You should be way ahead of almost any of his holdings aside from a lower pair (and in that case you're nearly even money to beat him and you have position). Raise pre-flop and it's not even close.

weevil · #9 08-09-2005, 01:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
CO is 14/7. With a 7 pfr, he's raising anything that beats KQ. With another limper already in, it's very likely he has a speculative hand (like QJs-Q9s). You should be way ahead of almost any of his holdings aside from a lower pair (and in that case you're nearly even money to beat him and you have position). Raise pre-flop and it's not even close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if %44 to %56 HUPF equity is not even close, then I need a brain freshener.

77+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo (approx. 14% of starting hands) -> 56% PFE
KQo -> 44% PFE

Throw in an UTG limper, and the more hands he plays, the closer his equity is to mine, and the closer mine gets to CO, but you can't tell me this is not even close.

weevil · #10 08-09-2005, 01:33 AM

In a desperate attempt to lower my WTSD numbers, and stop the gaping wound that is my love of being a calling station, I found the turn fold. BB called the turn and river, and had the very well played pocket aces, and CO the set of 3s. I was just curious if this was a standard fold from these players on a relatively undrawy board, and I guess it is.