Adjustments in kill games after winning a pot

[elena_elphie]

I play in a B&M 20/40 game that features a full kill when someone wins two pots in a row. If this happens the stakes double to 40/80 for the next pot and the person who caused the kill is forced to post a live kill blind of $40 and still acts in turn in the preflop round.

Obviously posting the kill blind is undesirable, and therefore I should tighten up the next hand if I win a pot, but I am unsure how much to tighten up.

First off what is the -EV of having to post the kill blind? I know from my pokertracker online 2/4 stats that my EV from the BB is - .2 BB. I assume my EV from the kill blind is somewhat better than this because I have better position. Although I have to post that blind @ double the stakes, so I'm guessing a reasonable guess of the EV penalty I suffer in the pot that might get me the kill blind is - .15BB * 2 or - .30BB.

So how much should I adjust due to the effective additional rake I have to pay if I win this pot.

I usually adjust in the following ways, but I have done no math behind this so it is just an intuitive guestimate. I
do the following:

fold rather than raise KQo and AJo in early position.

fold QJo,JTo, KTo, & QTo from late position in an unraised pot.

if folded to me in late position, only steal raise with a hand I would raise in middle position. (like this ever happens)

Postflop I tend to treat the pot size as 1SB smaller for pot odd calculations and fold in marginal situations.

Am I overadjusting or is this about right? It occurs to me that this effective additional rake isn't any bigger than the actual rake in say a 4/8 B&M game (about 1SB) and I don't make these sorts of adjustments in a B&M 4/8 game. hmmm.

One of the biggest adjustements you should be making is not related to tightening up, but rather playing for larger pots after winning one. For example, if you've just won a pot and now you're in the CO with something like KJ or A9, and it's one limper to you, this is a hand you want to avoid, not just because you want to tighten up in general but also because if you're going to win a pot that "kills" you, you want it to be of a decent size (to compensate you for the -EV of the kill of course).

Obviously, however, if you have a big hand and a nice positive expectation (say something like JJ with a couple of limpers to you), you'll have to suck up the potential kill and play it normally. Playing suboptimally just to avoid a kill is generally incorrect except in marginal spots (like the KJ above).

[elena_elphie]

I had thought of this, and I definately take that into consideration. I'm pretty happy to be in a multiway raised pot (which is fairly common in this game), but I want to avoid a situation that is something like me in the cutoff vs. the BB.