TP on a scary board - where to find the fold?

[DrewOnTilt]

Ugh. I gotta start getting away from these hands.

Villain here is TAGish - 14/9/2.3

Most of my data on him comes from data mining and not actual table play, so I am not sure how he plays his draws.

Where should I have found a fold here? Anybody mucking it on the turn?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (10 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12 BB

[four eight suited]

I really dont think you can fold this hand on party 3/6. Personally I would have capped the flop, but I dont mind calling down after that. I am by no means an expert but Im pretty sure this is one of those times you have to call em down and hope they didnt hit their crappy 2 pair. I know I would not be folding this hand anywhere, especially not the turn, in that you might have the best hand and if not you have a gutshot redraw and your 3 aces are probably outs too.

[ReadyEddie]

the only thing i might like a little better than you're line is to cap this flop.

I figure nothing less than a set is gonna be betting into me on the turn especially if a heart falls.

when that Q falls i check through and call the river. If I get bet into on the turn it sucks real bad, but i think i check call it down.

[WillyTrailer]

I'm pretty sure you can fold the river and be able to sleep just fine. Name one hand he might limp and then give that action that you're beating.
On the turn you have to call with possible two pair and trips out as well as outs to the nuts, but you can dump the river.

-WT

[ThomasPHoolery]

I'm mucking the river here. w 14/9, and him limping in, we're putting him on basically the top half of limping hands that a standard 19/9 player would have. In this position, that could be two suited connecting broadway cards, pocket pairs through -1010, and maybe a few other hands. Since we have A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in our hands, we know he's not on the nut flush draw. Since he's OOP, it doesn't make sense for him to be on a free card play with his 3 bet. At this point, 5 things pop out in my mind as possible hands given his stats, K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or set 10s or 4s.

If he has K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you have 6 clean outs (13.5 % equity)
If he's on K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] he has 15 outs on the river (68% equity)
w/ Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] he has 17 outs heading to the river (63% equity)
w/ either set, he's got 42 clean cards in the deck. (9% equity)


Assuming we can narrow his hand range down to those, and assuming he has each of those given possibilities 1/4 of the time, the equity we can figure to have is roughly 38% equity, which means we can call the turn, but in calling the turn I think we HAVE to commit ourselves to folding any [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A or 9. I can't think of anything else in his range w/ 10% certainty, and think a river call is -EV. Of course, there is some rough figures w/ the math, and a few other hands he could be on (for example K 10, KQo), but even with all those hands, he's still ahead on the river.