anybody folds this river?

gopnik · #1 08-07-2005, 05:09 PM

No specific reads on UTG, he is not a maniac or extra loose.
I think I should have folded the river to a raise because I don't see anything I beat that would raise me. I did not raise the flop because I was pretty sure that UTG had at least an A, otherwise he would not bet into a bunch of people. Too passive?

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero calls, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG 3-bets, Hero ...?

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

Henke · #2 08-07-2005, 05:23 PM

I think calling the flop is fine. You're (probably) not going to make a better hand fold, if you're not up against one already. The probability that you will make a Q fold is probably not that high neiter (unless they are reasonable players). I would consider folding the turn though...

On the river, I would call, but I think that that call is -EV in the long run.. But it would help me sleep better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

toddw8 · #3 08-07-2005, 05:26 PM

You MUST raise this flop. This is the perfect opportunity to protect your hand and buy some outs. UTG could show me and Ace and I would still raise. I think you got very lucky that everyone folded to one bet.

As it played out, I would call the river. You only have to win a little over 5% of the time for this call to be correct.

gopnik · #4 08-07-2005, 05:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You MUST raise this flop. This is the perfect opportunity to protect your hand and

[/ QUOTE ] buy some outs

what outs? please, give me an example

Harv72b · #5 08-07-2005, 05:46 PM

Just to clarify, UTG betting into the field on the flop does not mean that he must have an ace--most players will gladly bet with a 4-flush in that situation. Either way, though, I agree that you're probably better off not raising at this point--you are very unlikely to get a better hand to fold by raising, and you are very likely to be behind someone, if not the original bettor. You do, however, have enough to call the flop bet & see the turn...so if you're drawing, go ahead and let the rest of them come along.

I find it nothing short of bizarre that all 3 opponents folded for 1 bet, on this flop, in a 1/2 game. I know Stars has a reputation for being tighter than Party, but that's just crazy.

Anyway, I agree that you need to fold the turn if your read is that UTG has you beat. You are getting less than 5:1 to call with just a bunch of shaky outs--even spiking a non-diamond Q doesn't assure you of winning the whole pot, and you certainly won't get much in the way of implied odds if you do.

When he 3-bets the river, I'm thinking KJ or maybe a weakly played JJ (or attempted limp/reraise with AA-KK/AK). Either way, I don't think you're good 9% of the time (not 5% as someone said)--villain would have to be seriously overplaying top pair/2 pair to 3-bet such a scary river card.

Online247 · #6 08-07-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You MUST raise this flop. This is the perfect opportunity to protect your hand and buy some outs. UTG could show me and Ace and I would still raise. I think you got very lucky that everyone folded to one bet.

As it played out, I would call the river. You only have to win a little over 5% of the time for this call to be correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

If hero raises anywhere it should be preflop. Tough river decision, but I think if Hero raises he is going to have to fold to a 3-bet. What hands do you think villian will 3-bet you with that you beat?

toddw8 · #7 08-07-2005, 06:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You MUST raise this flop. This is the perfect opportunity to protect your hand and

[/ QUOTE ] buy some outs

what outs? please, give me an example

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I should have said "clean up your outs" instead, but what I meant was you want to make it unprofitable for a single Queen or Ten to call. If Queens and Tens fold, your two pair outs are now good, as well as your gutshot outs.

toddw8 · #8 08-07-2005, 06:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you're good 9% of the time (not 5% as someone said)

[/ QUOTE ]

My bad, I misread and thought there were 11.75 BB in the pot before the river action, not after. It's probably okay to fold to the 3 bet unless you have a read on the villian as a LAG.

gopnik · #9 08-07-2005, 06:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I meant was you want to make it unprofitable for a single Queen or Ten to call.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's already unprofitable, but I see your point.

Thanks!

gopnik · #10 08-07-2005, 06:51 PM

yeah, I agree now that I should have folded the turn.
Thanks!