KTo from SB on a coordinated flop

Henke · #1 08-06-2005, 06:35 PM

Multitabling to clear bonus, so I don't have any strong reads on any of the opponents. The table has been a bit more agressive than most party tables though...

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, UTG calls, CO 3-bets, Button calls, SB caps Hero?

TwoShedsJackson · #2 08-06-2005, 06:58 PM

This is a bad bad flop for overcards and a weak draw. Fold the flop. If you call and it's raised and re-raised behind you, turbo-fold.

Henke · #3 08-06-2005, 07:06 PM

This is a bad bad flop for overcards and a weak draw. Fold the flop. ...

Are you suggesting I fold two overs w gutshot str8draw and bd 2nd nut flushdraw to one bet from sb? That would be really weak IMO.

Disconnected · #4 08-06-2005, 07:19 PM

I think your raise is OK, since anyone with just overcards would have a tough time sticking around -- so you improve your chance to win the pot if you spike your king. I'd definitely do this if the pot were a little bigger, and if it were smaller, I would probably just call a single bet and see what happens. If you didn't have the BD flush, I'd fold.

When it comes back capped, I'd call it, folding the turn if with no 9, K, or diamond.

jmgurgeh · #5 08-06-2005, 07:23 PM

I don't think I like the flop raise. This is a big field you're raising into and anyone who caught any part of that is going to hold on. The board does not favor a hand like yours, and even as overcards go, your hand is weak (a J or Q on the turn means you only have one over now). I think I might call the flop bet. As it happened, I think you have to fold for two more.

Henke · #6 08-07-2005, 03:01 PM

Sorry 'bout the bump, but I felt it would be OK since of the three replies, the comments regarding my first action was 1 fold, 1.5 call and 0.5 raise.

Basically, when I played the hand, I estimated my outs to be around 8 (3 for overcards, 4 for gutshot and 1.5 for bdflush). That would mean that with three+ callers, the raise would be for value, With two callers it would be approximately 0 and if I would fold everyone but SB (which would be very unlikely) I would at least get to act last.

But I think I overestimated the number of outs I have. First of all, the T outs fill the OESD:s with a 9, so they're probably not worth 1.5 out, but rather around 0.5-1. Even the kings might not be worth 1.5 since the flop is kind of dangerous, so say that both of the overcards are worth about 1.5-2 outs. The gutshot outs aren't for the nut gutshot, and using only one card, it should be discounted to about 2 outs. So it's only the bdfl that's worth it's full 1.5 outs. That leaves us with 5-5.5 outs.

Since the table is quite agressive, I can probably expect someone to throw in a raise (any 9, any 5, any two :hearts:, any two pair etc). If I knew everyone would call, I would be getting 9:1, which would be enough. But since it's likely to be raised behind me, it's probably a fold. One point for TwoShedsJackson! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

In this particular hand, I was practically drawing dead. SB had 95 and CO, who called three cold, had J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]... This makes me wonder about the merits of raising to drive out gutshots. Seems that at low limits, the callingstations base their calling frequency on the strength of the hand they're drawing to, and not the probability of making that hand...

benkath1 · #7 08-07-2005, 03:09 PM

Why did you raise the flop?

Henke · #8 08-07-2005, 03:11 PM

Read my "Why I was wrong"-post...

Or short version: I overestimated the number of outs I had.

benkath1 · #9 08-07-2005, 03:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Read my "Why I was wrong"-post...

Or short version: I overestimated the number of outs I had.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just did. I'm a big fan of raising, but not in this spot. I think with the gutshot, you want overcallers.

Henke · #10 08-07-2005, 03:29 PM

What about if SB had raised pf?

I'm thinking that then raising would be correct, and hopefully then JT[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would have folded [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]