how bad was this hand?

jonoo · #1 08-05-2005, 05:52 PM

I know i shouldve folded on the turn so please dont comment on that, but after i do call and hit on the river, then what? should this be an easy fold?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Button ($0)
Hero ($148.40)
BB ($90)
UTG ($73.03)
MP ($146.65)
CO ($74.28)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, 1 fold, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets $4, Hero calls $4, BB folds, UTG calls $4.

Turn: ($16) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP bets $7, Hero calls $7, UTG folds.

River: ($30) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $20, MP calls $134.65 (All-In), Hero??????

NYCNative · #2 08-05-2005, 06:07 PM

I probably play it like you do on the turn, actually. You are still open-ended and have the second-nut flush draw and his bet prices you in - although a sharp villain knows this because he just hit his boat.

That said, a smart villain also wouldn't make such an overbet here, he would have raised it to $50 and tried to get an easy call and not a tough fold.

In fact, I would fear that raise more than the push which to me reeks of either a donk saying "Tee hee, I have trip Jacks" or a very scared villain who realized when you bet the spade river that maybe his trips aren't good anymore so he has to hope you'll fold.

I might lose a lot of money here but at the games I play, I have to call this one because more often than not, I won't. More often than not, he has the trip Jacks naked and MHIG.

Any reads?

foldem · #3 08-05-2005, 06:08 PM

lead out on the flop. this is an easy fold on the river.

xorbie · #4 08-05-2005, 06:10 PM

Check call the river man. Betting lets him know you have a flush so he auto pushes a boat.

djoyce003 · #5 08-05-2005, 06:11 PM

he potted the flop, but when the board paired he only bet half the pot....looks like the full house to me betting an amount big enough that he still makes profit but small enough that the flush draws might chase...which you did. Then when the flush hit, and you lead out on the river he goes all in. It's either the above scenario, or he too was drawing at the flush and just hit it, in which case you are likely to be ahead. The question becomes how often is it scenario 1 and how often is it scenario 2. Given the river action, I lean towards it being scenario 1 more than half the time so I would fold here. This is relevant to the thread about how often should you overbet the river...i'm guessing he's putting you on a flush, maybe a big one and he thinks you'll call the push...curious if you did or not.

NYCNative · #6 08-05-2005, 06:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Check call the river man. Betting lets him know you have a flush so he auto pushes a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]Why would a villain that is smart enough to price villain on on the turn be dumb enough to price villain out on the river? If villain is smart enough to underbet the turn, why is he overbetting the river? Unless villain has a read that Hero will make this call with even a weak flush, the overbet makes me skeptical.

jonoo · #7 08-05-2005, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I probably play it like you do on the turn, actually. You are still open-ended and have the second-nut flush draw and his bet prices you in - although a sharp villain knows this because he just hit his boat.

That said, a smart villain also wouldn't make such an overbet here, he would have raised it to $50 and tried to get an easy call and not a tough fold.

In fact, I would fear that raise more than the push which to me reeks of either a donk saying "Tee hee, I have trip Jacks" or a very scared villain who realized when you bet the spade river that maybe his trips aren't good anymore so he has to hope you'll fold.

I might lose a lot of money here but at the games I play, I have to call this one because more often than not, I won't. More often than not, he has the trip Jacks naked and MHIG.

Any reads?

[/ QUOTE ]
no reads other than his PT stats which were 26%/8%/0.65. I was thinking the same that he had just the J and was trying to steal it, but was wrong and he turn over JT.
The more i think about it the more i think it was a situation for a clear fold. the pot only had $50 in it and i made it pretty clear that i had a flush, so to call another $115 just seems terrible since he's not gunna push often enough w/ only a naked J after my river lead.

djoyce003 · #8 08-05-2005, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check call the river man. Betting lets him know you have a flush so he auto pushes a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]Why would a villain that is smart enough to price villain on on the turn be dumb enough to price villain out on the river? If villain is smart enough to underbet the turn, why is he overbetting the river? Unless villain has a read that Hero will make this call with even a weak flush, the overbet makes me skeptical.

[/ QUOTE ]

see my post above...the average party donk auto calls this with a 3 high flush at least half the time....maybe villain isn't giving hero credit for being better than that, but if they will call this half the time, then the push is better than a minraise that gets called 100% of the time.

NYCNative · #9 08-05-2005, 06:22 PM

Well, we thought alike. I wonder how many people here who say they would have folded would have called a smaller raise...

jonoo · #10 08-05-2005, 06:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Check call the river man. Betting lets him know you have a flush so he auto pushes a boat.

[/ QUOTE ]Why would a villain that is smart enough to price villain on on the turn be dumb enough to price villain out on the river? If villain is smart enough to underbet the turn, why is he overbetting the river? Unless villain has a read that Hero will make this call with even a weak flush, the overbet makes me skeptical.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think the river push was a pretty good one by villian bc I did make it pretty clear i had the flush and he figured i would be stupid enough to call which I did.