How Much Do You Bet to Balance Implied & Pot Odds?

GrunchCan · #1 08-04-2005, 08:42 AM

I thought I knew the answer to this, but now I'm not so sure.

Here's a simple example, in 2 parts. First part now, second part later.

Party 100NL. Everyone has 100.

You are dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on the CO. Everyone folds to you, you rasie to 4. Button calls, blinds fold.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players for 9.50)

Your opponent shows you that he has 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

How much do you bet?

#2 08-04-2005, 08:54 AM

Exactly as much as he is willing to call, and at least enough to make him call for more than 1/4 of the pot.

Ghazban · #3 08-04-2005, 08:57 AM

The maximum he will incorrectly call. If he will only call getting correct odds to draw, you bet $.01 more than that if you want to win now or exactly that amount if you want to gamble.

#4 08-04-2005, 09:07 AM

Your opponent shows you 37h?? how does he do that?... I bet the pot. If he chases, he has bad odds. You need to think of these hands as a long term kinda thing. If you play it this way 1000 times and he calls you every time, you make a lot of money with about 67% odds right? Plus you can bet the pot again on the turn if he doesnt hit, then he should really fold, if he doesnt, then you get great odds for a big pot and if he folds, he called a pot sized bet on the flop just to try to make the flush with 1 card.

#5 08-04-2005, 09:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Exactly as much as he is willing to call, and at least enough to make him call for more than 1/4 of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
I bet you get a lot of suckouts...Why would you bet to give him great odds on his flush if you can bet big and hope he is some dumb online gambler? I think you make way more money this way...I like to take the hand while im ahead. Thats the whole reason you raise preflop right? I get plenty of people calling huge bets with flush draws. I cant stand all of these players complaining about how guys can never let go of flushes and they always suckout...blah blah blah...stop giving the guy close odds, the average player calls at least 2/3 of the pot every time on the flop with a flush draw anyway.

#6 08-04-2005, 10:27 AM

I'll take a shot with my first post.

I used to think that the purpose of your flop bet in this situation is to win the pot immediately. Therefore, I would make a pot sized bet (sometimes more) and be happy if the other guy folded.

However, the real purpose of the flop bet is to make your opponent make a mistake. Your opponent does not make a mistake if you get him to fold to a pot sized bet. You want a call here so you the bet is the maximum amount that your opponent will incorrectly call.

If your opponent is a solid player who will not draw to the flush without the odds (or as we are hoping close to the odds), the bet should be a little smaller. 1/2 to 3/4 the pot. This bet still gives incorrect odds to draw but makes it a closer decision for our opponent.

If your opponent is someone who will always draw, pot-odds be damned, the bet should be larger (at least 3/4 but must likely the pot).

GrunchCan · #7 08-04-2005, 10:39 AM

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Your opponent shows you 37h?? how does he do that?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a hypothetical exercise.

Ghazban · #8 08-04-2005, 10:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your opponent shows you 37h?? how does he do that?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a hypothetical exercise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was assuming he was the worst colluder-wannabe in the world and thought he'd get an edge by IM'ing you his hand.

#9 08-04-2005, 10:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'll take a shot with my first post.

I used to think that the purpose of your flop bet in this situation is to win the pot immediately. Therefore, I would make a pot sized bet (sometimes more) and be happy if the other guy folded.

However, the real purpose of the flop bet is to make your opponent make a mistake. Your opponent does not make a mistake if you get him to fold to a pot sized bet. You want a call here so you the bet is the maximum amount that your opponent will incorrectly call.

If your opponent is a solid player who will not draw to the flush without the odds (or as we are hoping close to the odds), the bet should be a little smaller. 1/2 to 3/4 the pot. This bet still gives incorrect odds to draw but makes it a closer decision for our opponent.

If your opponent is someone who will always draw, pot-odds be damned, the bet should be larger (at least 3/4 but must likely the pot).

[/ QUOTE ]
Right on

GrunchCan · #10 08-04-2005, 12:39 PM

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The maximum he will incorrectly call.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is intuitively correct, but how much is 'incorrect'? For example, if we were to bet 1/3 pot on the flop, the opponent is getting 1:4. He would be incorrect to call this by virtue of expressed pot odds. But if we were planning to bet 1/3 pot again on a non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] turn, then he would be correct to call the flop bet based on implied pot odds. We bet 3 on the flop, he calls. On the turn the pot is (9.5+3+3) 15.5. Non-heart turn falls. We bet 5, he calls. River is (15.5+10) 25.5. Heart comes on river. The opponent has paid in a total of 8 to win 25.5, which is a little better than 1:3 implied odds. Since he was a 1:2.5 dog to make his flush in 2 cards, he's a long-term winner calling these bets.

Isn't he? So betting 1/3 pot on both flop & turn can't be right?

So I guess my question is, how much would he be incorrect to call based on implied odds?