Bottom 2 against limpers

centja1 · #1 08-02-2005, 10:51 AM

Here is yet another hand where in my education on raising the later streets without the nuts. I feel like I need to raise this at some point, but I just don't know where to do it after his flop aggression. Where do you find the raise?

Villain had not done anything interesting over the course of this session, showing down 5 hands, winning all of them. All of these hands were legitimate and not donk hands, either.

Villain in this hand is 35/2.44/1.56 over 78 hands.

Absolute Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG : Villain calls, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (4.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Villain bets, MP2 calls, Hero raises, BB folds, Villain 3-bets, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets, Hero calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

krimson · #2 08-02-2005, 11:07 AM

Fold pre-flop, middle offsuit connectors are not even marginally strong hands to be playing here. I could maybe see a call with 89s, but even then there are only 2 limpers in front of you and it would be very marginal.

If you're pretty sure villian will bet every street, then wait for the river to raise. The board pairing here makes your hand totally useless, so you might as well wait to put your raise in when you know your 2-pair has some chance of winning.

W. Deranged · #3 08-02-2005, 11:14 AM

1. Fold pre-flop. The pot is pretty short-handed and you have a hand which does not have much high card strength. I can't think of much reason to play this hand in the first place.

2. I think your post flop line is actually fine. Bottom two is really not a total monster. Your best bet here is probably to let villain continue to bet an inferior hand here for you given you have position.

3. My intuition on how to play the rest of the hand is probably to raise the turn and fold to a three-bet against a standard player (though folding and calling down will probably be pretty close and against a slightly tricky/agg. opponent I'd tend to call down). The board is pretty rich with combos that might make two pair or a straight. If your opponent has only one big pair, he has a ton of counterfeit outs against you and will probably be correct to call a turn raise, but raising charges the draw and actually gives your opponent the chance to make a bad fold.

(This is an interesting fundamental theorem situation. Playing a high pair against two smaller pairs is a classic situation where your opponents will often grossly misjudge their equity. An opponent may fold here thinking that they are drawing much thinner than they really are, which would be great for you).

I don't see you getting three-bet all that often here by a hand you're beating. With very few outs to improve against any hand that's beating you (probably ~3-4 on average), I think this is a situation where you need to get aggressive on the turn. (The old maxim of betting/raising without outs and calling with outs).

4. I also like not capping the flop, because I think it allows the turn raise which has numerous advantages in my opinion.

W. Deranged · #4 08-02-2005, 11:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]

If you're pretty sure villian will bet every street, then wait for the river to raise. The board pairing here makes your hand totally useless, so you might as well wait to put your raise in when you know your 2-pair has some chance of winning.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really disagree with this point. This would be similar to arguing that you should wait until the river to raise if you know you are up against a flush draw.

The fact that your opponent has a lot of outs makes it more imperative that you get the raise in earlier when your opponent is likely to be drawing. Raising earlier (the turn, for example) will also have the nice advantage of possibly allowing you to check the river behind if in fact you do get counterfeited. That way you can make sure you are getting the most money in while still ahead and least if you fall behind.

[Note that there are numerous differences between this situation and the standard situation where it is correct to wait until the turn to raise with a marginal holding, as have been discussed in several threads recently. In those situations, you have a marginal holding whose equity is somewhat suspect and subject to a radical change given the turn card. Plus, the betting limit gets bigger on the turn. Here, I advocate raising the turn instead of the river. Your equity is much more certain here and subject to fewer variations. We cannot get bigger bets in by waiting until a later street.]

centja1 · #5 08-02-2005, 01:09 PM

I should have mentioned that this was the first time the SB hadn't completed in an unraised pot in about 8 orbits. I was expecting to get 5 players to the flop, but only got 4.

W, as usual, gave me some good insight on the hand. To shift the conversation to the pre-flop fold, how many limpers do you need to play this hand on the button? or do you never play an unsuited middle connector?

I believe that playing offsuit connectors is OK on the button behind a couple of limpers with the blinds yet to come along.

Even though I'm not sooooted, I have a hand that will make two-pair or trips about 3% of the time and flop an open ended straight draw about 18% of the time (not to mention the rare occurrences of a flopped straight). Of course, those straight draws will be strengthened or weakened by the presence or absence of flush draws or whether the straight cards are above or below my hole cards. Take this 21% and drop it down to about 15% or so and I think I can make up the 5% in implied odds in position when i get a favorable flop or hit my hand on a later street.

I look at limping with this hand as no different than limpling with something like 33. You've got about the same effective pot equity assuming you're not going to go past the flop without a third 3 and you have about the same number of bets to make up post-flop as with the unsuited connector.

That said, I don't find that folding here is going to make a noticeable difference one way or the other over the long run, just that I don't believe it to be so cut and dried as to simply fold without thinking.

W. Deranged · #6 08-02-2005, 01:17 PM

Centja,

I generally want a pot to be gaurenteed five ways with the possibility of 6 or 7 ways before I start to play speculative hands.

To have an equity edge against a 4 person field, you almost certainly need the ability to win the hand without making a "big hand" (two pair, flush, straight, set, etc...) Namely, you need high card potential and/or showdown value. 89 just doesn't have either of these.

Notice that in fact 10 9 and even J 10, when unsuited, are not even likely enough to have enough power to really be worth playing all that often here. My suspicion is that in your exact position J 10 is going to be about neutral EV, meaning the lower offsuit connectors will probably be negative EV.

centja1 · #7 08-02-2005, 01:33 PM

W,

There's no way in the world I have an equity edge against four players with this hand, but I hadn't really thought about these speculative hands against a five handed field until now. I agree with you that I'm probably giving up money pre-flop with a call like this.

What do you think about the comparison of this situation to limping with a small PP in a similar spot? I look at it in much the same way since you will probably not play on unless you flop a set or everyone checks to you. You'll have roughly the same equity against three random hands as with the offsuit connector, so would you play this here or fold it as well?

I guess I'm most interested in what the cutoff is for small pairs and such.

SocialWelfareIV · #8 08-02-2005, 01:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Even though I'm not sooooted, I have a hand that will make two-pair or trips about 3% of the time and flop an open ended straight draw about 18% of the time (not to mention the rare occurrences of a flopped straight).

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm a bit rusty on my probability calculations so pardon the simple question: is it correct that you flop an open ended straight draw 18% of the time? I thought the number was much lower and I am not sure if I am calculating it the correct way.

W. Deranged · #9 08-02-2005, 01:38 PM

For small pairs, you are about 7.5-1 against flopping a set. At most small stakes tables, if you are confident 5 players will make the flop, the small pairs are plenty profitable to play, because the implied odds are enormous. If, on the other hand, you are in the button with 44 behind two limpers and a tight SB, playing is probably not going to be profitable because you are not getting immediate odds to draw to a set and your implied odds might not be there. Against that kind of field, since a raise is not likely to get the pot short-handed, it will be correct to raise there with your small pair.

The big differences between a hand like 89o and 44 are:

1. 44 is much more likely to flop a huge hand (a set) than 89o is.

2. 44 has some minimal showdown value which on very rare occassions may come in handy.

3. 44 is easier to play postflop and is not likely to get you caught up paying down with beaten hands.

callmedonnie · #10 08-02-2005, 02:04 PM

Fold preflop, not enough limpers for that hand. Flop play I like, but only you have to raise the turn.