JJ Flop Decision

Nilbud · #1 08-01-2005, 07:04 AM

I never know what to do in these situations. I'm probably behind here as UTG+1 will play any two cards, but rarely bets out unless he has something. I only count 3.5 outs with the BDFD getting 10:1, which wouldn't normally be enough, but do I go ahead and peel on off because I might have the best hand here?

I don't really have any read on SB, except that PT tells me he's tight/passive. MP3 is a LAG but he's much more loose than he is aggressive.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 bets, MP3 folds, Hero...

Webster · #2 08-01-2005, 07:06 AM

I would fold and move on tothe next hand. No need to bang your head against the wall.

At that level ANY Ace plays.

DrunkHamster · #3 08-01-2005, 07:08 AM

Usually, with your read on UTG+1, you are toast. From playing at this level, a donkbet like this is rarely a bluff. I would say that you are most likely behind at the moment. However, I think you have the implied odds to peel one off, getting 10-1. This is helped by the fact you have the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], so any jack which comes doesn't complete a flush. Yeah, I call this and fold the turn UI.

Nilbud · #4 08-01-2005, 07:19 AM

I was a bit worried about the fact a Jack would coordinate the board a bit, devaluing my hand as far as implied odds.

@bsolute_luck · #5 08-01-2005, 07:30 AM

unless you think he's donkbetting a flush/straight draw, which based on reads i doubt, i'd fold.

even IF SB comes along, you're getting 11:1 and you need 13:1.

your Jack does look dangerous on this coordinated board, but i have to doubt 3-handed someone has KT.

kapw7 · #6 08-01-2005, 07:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
unless you think he's donkbetting a flush/straight draw, which based on reads i doubt, i'd fold.

even IF SB comes along, you're getting 11:1 and you need 13:1.

your Jack does look dangerous on this coordinated board, but i have to doubt 3-handed someone has KT.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you need 13:1 then it's an easy call b/c of implied odds. Unless you think that everyone will fold if a Jack falls on the turn.

However it's worse than 13:1 because you draw to the non-nut flush and also you'll have to pay 2 extra SB on the turn if a spade falls and not make your flush etc. And there are the inverse implied odds making a set and losing to a flush/straight.

So yes fold given the reads.

*** And I just noticed there is a Q on board as well so it's a super-fold

MATT111 · #7 08-01-2005, 07:55 AM

It`s either fold or raise.
With 2 overcards+reads folding is probably better.

jrz1972 · #8 08-01-2005, 07:57 AM

Either peeling or folding is fine. You're being offered 10:1 if SB folds, 11:1 if he comes along. With your ~4 outer, you really want 13:1 to call. If you back into a flush or straight, you won't get paid off much since the threat will be so obvious, but you can probably expect to grab those extra 2 sbs on the river which makes this pretty much break even.

@bsolute_luck · #9 08-01-2005, 08:24 AM

good post. you further explained why i didn't think it was worth a call.

Nilbud · #10 08-01-2005, 08:49 AM

Thanks, that makes sense. My gut was telling me I was beat but I was looking for a way to continue.