HOH2 pushing with anything with less than 6xBB doesn't always work

[betgo]

It works well in an ante tournament with reasonably tight play. Sometimes I wind up short stacked early in a fairly low buyin event. If the play is very loose and people ignore the gap principal and are free with their chips, it doesn't make sense to push with a marginal hand if you are going to get 2 or 3 callers.

Also in SNGs and supersatellites, almost everyone can wind up very short stacked. People are playing for place, so a push may have more chance of succeeding. Howver, sometimes it is better not to make it even though it is chip EV+.

[McMelchior]

HOH2 not (only) recommends pushing with less than 6 x BB, but with less than 6 x (SB + BB).

Which I believe gives you slightly better chances of folding marginal hands.

If you find yourself low stacked early on (and yes, I can relate) in a low buy-in event where blinds escalate rapidly the situation is critical.

You will see very few hands before your stack is not only low, but basically dead. Claiming whatever little FE you have while you have it might be the best way of giving your self a shot at getting back into the tournament.

The alternative: spending another 30 - 45 minutes dragging a dwindling stack through ever-increasing blinds - and NOT getting called when you finally pick up a strong hand (the Shania principle, if I got it right), or doubling from such a low point that it doesn't really matter - makes little sense.

When you calculate your net profit from a low buy-in tournament you must include time spent playing (unless you're playing out of a very short bankroll and have unlimited time) - and specifically time spent playing with very little chance of getting back into the tournament.

Short stacked early on in a low buy-in MTT populated with very poor loose players I'm not too worried about getting called by to over-cards when I move in from EP with a marginal hand like J9s. Two thirds of the time I'm out and can devote my mind to more productive tasks (like the next low buy-in MMT or reading 2+2). One third of the time I suddenly have a playable stack.

BTW, lately a number of times I've seen wild players with large stacks make isolation-re-raises with crap hands like 22 thru 44, which certainly adds to the EV of moving in.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[betgo]

If you expect lots of action from a push, you may be better off waiting for a big hand where you will get paid off big.

[McMelchior]

Yeah, I know that's what you're aiming at.

The problem is that in a low buy-in MTT with rapidly increasing blinds you're likely not get your big hand before it's too late - either you're blinded out or so low that doubling doesn't bring you back in a playable chip position.

I strongly believe not gambling while you still can benefit from winning your gamble is a mistake.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[betgo]

The principles of pushing short stacked still apply, but I think you need to make some adjustments for loose tables.

For example, I was playing in a $15 rebuy. With about 1/5 of the field left, I open push from early position for 10xBB with AQs. Get called by the SB with QJo. In this kind of situation, your FE is less with mediocre hands and you get paid off better with big hands.

A little later blinds 600/1200, UTG with 30K limps, 3rd position raises allin for 11K. I raise allin over the top in 4th position with 19K and QQ. UTG thinks for a while, and I am wondering how he can call. He was limping with a lot of hands as a big stack and he either must be trapping and should call instantly or he can't call with a limping hand. 1st allin shows QJo, limp caller shows KJs. A king hits, and I am out rather than moving into the leaders.

The point is that with loose play, such as in a rebuy tournament like this, you can often do well just with your big hands and pushing with junk doesn't work so well.

I realize that when you are really short stacked sometimes you have to make a move, but I believe you need to make adjustments to a loose table.

[faustusmedea]

Dan goes into most of what you are saying. When your M is low, you have to contemplate a big move because you need to get enough chips to get back in to the tourney. In the Structured Hand Analysis section of the book, he shows that with an M of 7-8 and a marginal hand you can profitably shove in most circumstances. BUT; he shows that if the table is composed of a lot of loose players, the play becomes unprofitable.

The whole M factor thing is very valuable, but must be shaped by the table. If you have two short or large stacks behind you, you have to consider the fact you will get called more often and adjust to that fact. You still open with a lower value hand, but maybe not any two.

You also have to have a read on the 3 or 4 players behind you and how tight/loose they have been playing. Someone applying Dan's zone system without regard for these factors would likely see little improvement in their tourney results.

Fm

[A_PLUS]

For me it is an opportnity cost problem

I want to get my chips in the middle (even as a dog) with 7xBB, vs getting them in as a big favorite with 4xBB.

Once we get very SS, I think out every round of blinds as 3xBB. We will have to double up, I prefer to do when winning a single 40/60 hand will put me back in a normal playing range, vs hoping to find two 60/40 spots for myself later.
\
Also, Dan's analysis of SNGs is pretty bad, IMO (if you play <50$ PP Sngs)

[McMelchior]

BetGo, I'm honestly not quite sure what you're saying apart from that you must adjust your play to the table - everybody must agree to that.
[ QUOTE ]
In this kind of situation, your FE is less with mediocre hands and you get paid off better with big hands.


[/ QUOTE ]
Folding Equity (FE) is estimated as ((current pot) + (your bet)) x (fraction of times it's folded around and you take the pot down unchallenged).

Therefore your FE is independent of what cards your holding.

Example: There's t4,000 in the pot and everybody folds to you. You bet all-in t20,000. If you estimate everybody is going to fold to your bet 67% of the time (and you'll be called 33% of the time) your FE = (t4,000 + t20,000) x 0.67 = t16,080. Since you're committing t20,000 you have a deficit of t3,920, that you must make up with your hand winning some fraction of the times you're called.

Since other players commit chips to the pot when you're called, this fraction does not need to be very big for the play to be +EV. At this point I'm talking about the situation where you're short stacked early on in the tourney, where chip EV = $EV.

In my example if the BB (blinds 2,400/1,200, antes 75, 8 players) calls (and he has you covered) you need to win at least 3,920 / (24,000 + 17,600)= 9.4% for the play to be EV neutral. That's not a lot - basically all hands will win at least that frequently HU.

If instead you estimate you'll get called 50% of the time you FE drops to t12,000, and you'll need to make up t8,000 when you're called. Again, this is only 19.2% of the time you're called by one player. If you're called by more than one player of course your chances of winning goes down, but it will be compensated by the fact that you win more when you do. Loose games introduce higher volatility, but not necessarily lower EV from you all-in.

Waiting for big hands will undoubtfully lower your FE, and even poor players tend to notice very tight players and might actually fold a substantial fraction of the times you finally move in with your pocket rockets.

I believe the fallacy you (and frequently I as well) fall in to is not fully appreciating that tournament poker is gambling with a large inherent volatility. Trying to reduce the gambling element by tight play when the stack/blinds ratio sinks is a crucial mistake. I know it proves nothing, but Fossilman's constant and very successful pushing of basically any edge is never the less a very good illustration of this fact.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
BetGo, I'm honestly not quite sure what you're saying apart from that you must adjust your play to the table - everybody must agree to that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes, the table is so loose that your allin is likely to get 2 or 3 callers. Therefore, you have almost no folding equity. Plus you get paid off bigger with a big hand. In some of these situations, there will generally atleast be limpers, so you cannot steal even from late position.

If you don't have FE, it is EV- to push with marginal hands, since you will probably be called by better ones.

In these situations, it is better to wait for a quality hand. If you know you going to be allin versus 1-5 players, it is better to wait for the best hand to do it with.

[A_PLUS]

My point is:

If you are looking at situations where we assume CEV=$EV.
For you to pass up pushing during the orbit when you have 7xBB. You are going to need to pick up a spot where you have an extra 1.5xBB in CEV. When you are short stacked, that is a big difference. Basically you will need a spot where if you are heads up, you have 15% more equity in the pot.

Also, getting 5 callers to a 6xBB push, is a very extreme example. Like 1 game out of 200 rare.