back to basics 2 - value betting the river?

[tiltaholic]

another 3/6 hand.

villian is slightly loose preflop and very passive throughout. this read is based on less than 50 hands though.

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (5.16 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero ???

value bet the river? yes or no and why? discuss.

[MrWookie47]

Since he's passive, he's probably not betting many hands you beat, but he'll call with a lot them. I like betting here.

[deception5]

I would bet. A passive player isn't check/raising here often (and it would be easy to lay this down to a passive player's check/raise). You dominate any other jack except for 2 pair and a passive player will call down with any pocket pair, an 8, or a worse jack.

[GrunchCan]

I don't like raising PF here. You'll be HU OOP the whole hand. If you just check PF and then lead the flop, you'll have more FE than if you raised PF and got a call.

Regardless, I bet-fold the river and expect to be shown a weak ace about a third of the time. He'll call with a PP or a little bit of the board about a third of the time, and fold something like KQ the rest.

[GrunchCan]

And keep posting these kinds of hands. They are good.

[sccrneo]

Bet for value. While it is possible for him to have an Ace, I think that more often he will not have the ace and will call with middle or bottom pair. You pretty much beat anything that he is going to have besides an Ace. I think this is a bet for value.

[deception5]

Interesting. I actually like the preflop raise as I think we're crushing the range of hands this limper is coming in with and I think it increases the chance that the opponent will fold when high cards flop (granted it didn't against this opponent).

[GrunchCan]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting. I actually like the preflop raise as I think we're crushing the range of hands this limper is coming in with and I think it increases the chance that the opponent will fold when high cards flop (granted it didn't against this opponent).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the italicized part but disagree with the bolded part. I think we have far more FE when we bet out of the blue.

[Asim]

i would value bet the river.. you hvaent been raised, realy only 3 cards in the whole deck that can beat you... so why not try, chances are, he doesnt have an ace

He could be on an ugly draw, especially with the 9 turned. I agree with previous poster on the weak ace, about 1/4 of the time. I value bet the river here, theres nearly no chance of a check raise coming. I like the raise, it isolates his already crappy call with something like j10 off...his holding wont be killing you to often and even when they do, hes passive so you wont go broke...
CDL