AJ - Top pair facing turn raise.

johnnycakes · #1 07-29-2005, 11:11 AM

All I got on this guy is that he's 24/14. So, not a maniac and not a calling station. I think that's a good enough read to be able to make the correct turn decision.

Party Poker Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 2 folds, MP1 calls, 3 folds, Button 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, Button bets, BB folds, Hero raises, MP1 folds, Button calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero ???

krimson · #2 07-29-2005, 11:18 AM

I would fold. The only time I see this line is with big hands that people are extracting value from. He wouldn't come back at you with an underpair here nor would he 3-bet a weaker ace.

edit: also post how many hands you have on the person so we can judge the accuracy of the read. 24/14 after 60 hands is very different than 24/14 after 1000 hands.

sean c · #3 07-29-2005, 11:25 AM

FWIW I love the way you played the flop and the turn. I'm not sure what the correct play is here your gonna have to be good 16% of the time to call this down you probably have three clean jack outs man I just don't know. The call of the flop raise then popping you on the turn pretyy much means your toast but I don't think drawing dead.

W. Deranged · #4 07-29-2005, 11:25 AM

I think the key here is the pre-flop three-bet. When he reraises pre-flop and has not given any indication of being a total lag (though he does appear to raise a little thinner than most), I have a very hard time putting him on any reasonable range of hands that would take this line which you are beating.

As Krimson points out, this line is purely a value line. I would be shocked if villain were running this play with a hand like QQ with the sheer intent of trying to getting a moderate A to fold.

You are likely drawing to three outs here. Putting opponents on individual hands is not the best way to proceed, but I would honestly expect to see AK here about 80% of the time. AA and AQ are moderately likely, as is 88, but I don't see a neutral/aggressive opponent running this with much else.

So I fold. Getting only 6-1 on a call down here folding seems very logical.

W. Deranged · #5 07-29-2005, 11:27 AM

With hero getting like 6-1 or so on a call down, drawing to three outs (which need to be slightly discounted for the possibility of a set) is pretty close to "drawing dead" here.

johnnycakes · #6 07-29-2005, 04:43 PM

I felt confused and called him down.
If I had stopped and thought for five seconds, I could have found a fold on the turn. Unless he's bluffing, there is nothing he could have here that I currently beat.

He had 88, for a turned set.

cocked&locked · #7 07-29-2005, 05:03 PM

This looks like a WA/WB situation in my opinion. What about check/call flop, check/call turn, and either check/call or bet the river?

Opinons??

KDawgCometh · #8 07-29-2005, 05:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a WA/WB situation in my opinion. What about check/call flop, check/call turn, and either check/call or bet the river?

Opinons??

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking that right from the start, but I think we need to bet/fold the river

cocked&locked · #9 07-29-2005, 05:11 PM

Yeah,

I think you are right - betting is probably best (although I think reads could help us make this decision). I actually need to make that bet more often. Doesn't it suck when you know you should do something, have sound reasoning for doing it, but still fail to pull the trigger sometimes for some odd reason?? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

W. Deranged · #10 07-29-2005, 05:14 PM

I think a main argument for not adopting this line is that this is the kind of hand where we can gain enough information from the play of the hand that we can determine whether we are ahead or behind, and actually find a line of play that is better than the check-call line.

The check-call/check-call/bet line in my opinion is kind of a default play which works against particularly laggy/tricky/skilled opponents or with a board texture that will make it difficult to tell what villain's bets/raises mean.

Here were have a very "clean" board and I think with a little creativity we can get more/lose less with a different line.