Anybody got the stones to bet this river?

legend42 · #1 07-29-2005, 01:40 AM

20/40 Party 8 handed. I raise with ATo from late position. My image is tight solid. Small blind (decent, usually aggressive) 3-bets, big blind (loose, erratic, can be tricky or maybe just bad, hard to read) calls.

Flop comes A Q Q two hearts. SB bets, BB calls, I raise. They both call. Turn is 6s. They check, I bet. SB waits a long time before calling. BB calls fairly quickly. River is 9h. They both check again. And I...?

(Note: I can NOT fold to a check raise from BB- and he likes to check raise the river.)

random · #2 07-29-2005, 02:07 AM

Bet.

The Truth · #3 07-29-2005, 03:15 AM

I assume your kicker plays. So, bet.

ike · #4 07-29-2005, 04:51 AM

I hate your flop raise. After that flop with 2 people in I'm fine with just going call, call, call. If someone wants to draw to a gutshot or less on that flop they're welcome to and I don't feel like giving JJ a chance to fold or KQ a chance to 3bet. Oh, and I definetly bet the river, especially if BB is often checkraising with a worse hand.

bernie · #5 07-29-2005, 04:56 AM

Check behind. You're not representing a flush draw in this hand. SB probably has you outkicked and had to think of the likelihood of you having a Q given your flop play and turn bet. Since he called the turn, he's likely going to call the river. He likely isn't convinced you have a Q.

I'd be suprised if anyone had a Q really.

My main concern is being outkicked. If SB calls, you have problems.

b

bernie · #6 07-29-2005, 04:57 AM

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I hate your flop raise. After that flop with 2 people in I'm fine with just going call, call, call. If someone wants to draw to a gutshot or less on that flop they're welcome to and I don't feel like giving JJ a chance to fold or KQ a chance to 3bet. Oh, and I definetly bet the river, especially if BB is often checkraising with a worse hand.

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I'd really want to bet this river. But I'm not sure enough with the SB still being in. What are you putting him on?

b

ike · #7 07-29-2005, 05:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I hate your flop raise. After that flop with 2 people in I'm fine with just going call, call, call. If someone wants to draw to a gutshot or less on that flop they're welcome to and I don't feel like giving JJ a chance to fold or KQ a chance to 3bet. Oh, and I definetly bet the river, especially if BB is often checkraising with a worse hand.

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I'd really want to bet this river. But I'm not sure enough with the SB still being in. What are you putting him on?

b

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Some crappy ace? A pocket pair he just can't let go? Maybe flopped gutshot, but now thats folding. I definetly don't put him frequently on anything that beats us. A queen definetly checkraises the turn, and I'd imagine a better ace usually gives more action too.

bernie · #8 07-29-2005, 05:16 AM

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Some crappy ace? A pocket pair he just can't let go? Maybe flopped gutshot, but now thats folding.

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Gutshot isn't likely calling that turn. The overlay just isn't there as he could hit his hand and be stuck to a FH. Unless her really thinks the OP is raising the flop with something other than an A or Q. Pocket pair is gone unless it's KK. Maybe JJ. He isn't described as a calling station.

Thinking my way through this: This guy did 3 bet preflop from the SB, though it can be a resteal raise since the hero did open from LP prelfop. So a crappy ace is more possible. Even though OPs image is tight/solid. Given that, I like the river bet a little more. Basically the only hand that he might have that beats us is AJ as AK might've popped it again somewhere.

b

legend42 · #9 07-29-2005, 01:17 PM

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I'd really want to bet this river. But I'm not sure enough with the SB still being in. What are you putting him on?

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That's the thing. I was hoping to push him of AJ, and maybe even AK (as I said, my image is very solid here). After he took so long to call the turn, I put him on KK, but still couldn't eliminate the better ace.

The other serious factor is the BB though, who could have anything from a Broadway gutshot, an ace (better or worse kicker than mine), a flush draw which just hit, his own pocket pair, or flopped quads (yes, he really might play them this way, honest- he's weird).

bernie · #10 07-29-2005, 01:38 PM

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That's the thing. I was hoping to push him of AJ, and maybe even AK (as I said, my image is very solid here). After he took so long to call the turn, I put him on KK, but still couldn't eliminate the better ace.

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Figure that once he calls the turn, he's calling the river. That could have been what he was deciding on the turn.

b