Pokerstars Pot-limit situation

drewjustdrew · #1 03-06-2003, 02:40 PM

Over halfway through $11 pot limit holdem tournament. 71 players left from 205 entries. I have $2600 which is slightly below average. Blinds are 100-200. UTG raises one unit to 400. I have pocket kings and raise the pot from 2UTG making it 1500 to go. Player in small blind with over 6000 in chips reraises the pot. Initial raiser folds. I am 99% sure he has aces. Should I call my last 1100? My share of the pot would be $5600 before I put in my last $1100.

Results: I called, he did have the aces and I lost. I think I was swayed by the pot total. The way pokerstars does it, they don't tell you the portion you are eligible for. I was thinking the pot was $8200 when I called.

pokerlover · #2 03-06-2003, 03:07 PM

If I was 99% sure then I would fold.

drewjustdrew · #3 03-06-2003, 03:17 PM

What are the odds of my underpair winning? I think it is almost 6-1, so my call is not too horrible from an EV stance right? Check my math 2/48,2/47,2/46,2/45,2/44. Over 5 cards doesn't that come to 10/46 times I will hit my set. Just over 20% of the time. So 80% of the times I hit my set, my opponent will also hit his set. A little more than 17% of the time I will beat his hand with a set. I'm thinking flushes, straights and quads are distant possibilities in the calculation. I am not very comfortable with statistics, so I could be very wrong in my assumptions.

sdplayerb · #4 03-06-2003, 04:33 PM

It is about 4.5 to 1.
I'd definitely call, and for a couple of reasons:
1. Online you can be up against QQ or AK (in a bigger tourney, he definitely has Aces..still very good read by you)
2. At this level, with 1100 left, you are going to be a short stack.
3. You are getting the odds in case he has AA.

With the possibilities of this person poorly playing QQ and AK, i think that heightens your odds on the call even more. not quite to even money, but i'd say 2.5 to 1 dog.

Just bad luck running into AA when you have KK. I've had it twice late in tourneys, not a lot of fun.

SD

pokerlover · #5 03-06-2003, 05:39 PM

If you were "99%" sure your oppenent had AA would you call?

sdplayerb · #6 03-06-2003, 09:58 PM

no i would not.
and i believe you that you can, as you know how that player played.

RiverOtter · #7 03-10-2003, 10:14 PM

I think you ran into the wrong hand at the wrong time. Your odds are approximately 4.3-1 against depending on the suits involved. Based on pot odds and becoming pretty well crippled if you fold here,the answer is you should call. In a live game i could fold, but online i think you have to call as you cannot be 99% certain he has aces unless you have seen nothing less then aces several or more times from this player in this situation.

Ignatius · #8 03-11-2003, 12:15 AM

Another way to think about it: You're getting 4800:1100, which is about the odds of AA v/s KK, so by calling, you're basically freerolling on the chance to have misread him. If you are positive that the probability is realy above 99% (practically only possible if he flashes his cards), then you can fold. Otherwise you have to call and hope for the best.