Good river bet?

Boolean · #1 07-28-2005, 11:15 PM

MP3 is extremely loose (73%) and will cold call with pretty much anything preflop. He's not extremely aggressive post-flop, but he will bet and raise with good solid hands. UTG is an LPA who will bet and raise with his better hands on the flop. UTG+2 is your typical calling station who will go to the river with any piece of the board, and will never raise whatsoever.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (21 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 3-bets, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls.

Easy raise for protection value and because I may have the best hand. I call the 3-bet.

Turn: (18 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets, MP3 raises, UTG calls, Hero calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 folds.

This is a huge pot right now and it's 2 back to me laying me 11.5:1. I could be drawing dead to a straight that MP2 woke up with however. I have only 2 hands on MP2 at this point. I call, but I'm not sure if that was the correct play.

River: (27 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets..

The board pairs the turn card, and I bet for value in case villain has 56, J5, J6. Turn donk-bettor folded on the turn, so I'm not worried about the straight threat. I'm behind JJ, 66, and 55. If my math is correct, that means there are 5 hands that beat me, and 21 hands that I beat. I know that UTG+2 will not fold no matter what. UTG however is a wild card. My bet also hopes to drive UTG out in case MP3 raises again. I feel that Villain would play a set and 2 pair about the same way, and he'd call with any of these cards preflop. I feel that UTG's most likely hand is a pocket pair, TT, QQ. Or unimproved overcards. Is this too aggressive? Am I leaving something out?

gharp · #2 07-28-2005, 11:53 PM

I don't think you should bet here. It's a scare card, so maybe if you thought everyone would fold it would be OK. But do you really think MP3's going away after the way he's been betting?

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The board pairs the turn card, and I bet for value in case villain has 56, J5, J6

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J5 and J6 are still ahead of you on the river...

Boolean · #3 07-29-2005, 12:05 AM

Wow, I'm taking a break for a while until I can read the board properly. Eesh.

Brice · #4 07-29-2005, 12:50 AM

I am not sure if the four is a scare card, even if it is a club. The betting pattern does not reflect a flush.

I probably would have capped the flop. MP2 may give up a flush or straight draw.

Your jacks with a king kicker is a marginal to strong holding. With UTG checking, he could be planning a check raise but his betting pattern does not reflect a made flush. MP3 is one to worry about, since he has been showing strength the entire way. However, he could be on QJ.

I like the bet for value here. I think it may represent that you made a flush and chase out hands that are stronger than yours.

gharp · #5 07-29-2005, 01:42 AM

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I am not sure if the four is a scare card, even if it is a club

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It also pairs the board.

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The betting pattern does not reflect a flush.

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I like the bet for value here. I think it may represent that you made a flush

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

hemstock · #6 07-29-2005, 01:44 AM

Early position, I just limp KJs
My opinion is you should fold the turn when it comes 2 back to you.
If MP3 has J6 or J5 he has you beat. He raised every street so you might wanna concider the possibility that he has a set. If this is the case you are dead on the river. And UTG+2 has been haning around the whole time. Maybe he was on a flush draw.

So to recap I would limp preflop, play the flop the same and then fold the turn when it comes 2 back to you. But since you called. I really think you should check/fold the river

hemstock · #7 07-29-2005, 01:50 AM

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I am not sure if the four is a scare card, even if it is a club. The betting pattern does not reflect a flush.

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Yes it's a really scary card.

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I probably would have capped the flop. MP2 may give up a flush or straight draw.

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Capping the flop when MP3 makes it 3-bet to go would be very very WRONG. And nobody will give up on his draw. The pot is huge.

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Your jacks with a king kicker is a marginal to strong holding. With UTG checking, he could be planning a check raise but his betting pattern does not reflect a made flush.

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What flush? The only reasonable hand to put UTG is on a big pocket pair

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MP3 is one to worry about, since he has been showing strength the entire way. However, he could be on QJ.

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Given the read I can't see him making it 3 bet with QJ. He is loose so I would guess 2-pair or a set.

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I like the bet for value here. I think it may represent that you made a flush and chase out hands that are stronger than yours.

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What?

Brice · #8 07-29-2005, 01:50 AM

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I am not sure if the four is a scare card, even if it is a club

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It also pairs the board.

But it is unlikely that it will give anyone trips. If it was any other four, I would call it a blank.

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The betting pattern does not reflect a flush.

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I like the bet for value here. I think it may represent that you made a flush

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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If he bets, someone may think he has a flush. If he bets, he may even chase away someone with a lower flush. Marginal hands should be bet or raised in this situation.

Brice · #9 07-29-2005, 02:01 AM

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Yes it's a really scary card.

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The betting pattern shows that maybe UTG+2 and UTG are on flush draws and that is it. UTG+2 has been declared a calling station and the check by UTG on the river may have been a sign of weakness.

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Capping the flop when MP3 makes it 3-bet to go would be very very WRONG. And nobody will give up on his draw. The pot is huge.

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You still want to limit the field if possible. It is worth the extra bet if you can get even one person to fold.

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What flush? The only reasonable hand to put UTG is on a big pocket pair

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How? UTG called the pre-flop betting. That does not indicate a big pocket pair.

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Given the read I can't see him making it 3 bet with QJ. He is loose so I would guess 2-pair or a set.

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He is LOOSE. He could be playing a wide range of hands.

hemstock · #10 07-29-2005, 02:10 AM

He is loose but not a maniac to 3bet.
UTG called and reraised preflop. That usually indicated an AA or KK that was initialy trying to slowplay.