Commerce 9/18 #2: 22

[jason_t]

A few orbits at a loose/passive table. My image is good.

Preflop: I am CO with 22.
UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, I call, Button calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Checked to me, I....

[Piiop]

Meh, I'd check and not worry about it. A loose-passive table isn't one where betting this flop is going to be very good for you. Someone probably has a T, someone probably has a flush draw, someone may be slow-playing a 4, tons of outs against you, I don't think it's a good bet. But, I would turn a 2.

[Evan]

I'd check. If the board were rainbow or the T were an 8 I'd swing to betting. FWIW I don't think betting is bad really, it's close.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd check. If the board were rainbow or the T were an 8 I'd swing to betting. FWIW I don't think betting is bad really, it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does rainbow change it?

[Piiop]

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Why does rainbow change it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I THINK YOU ALREADY KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT.

[Evan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd check. If the board were rainbow or the T were an 8 I'd swing to betting. FWIW I don't think betting is bad really, it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does rainbow change it?

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OMG can someone ban jason_t?

[ArturiusX]

Cool hand. I check here, but I could imagine a bet working in this situation. We have to push people off hands that could easily outdraw us, I guess thats what it comes down too. I dont know if you can do it in such a big pot.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
Meh, I'd check and not worry about it. A loose-passive table isn't one where betting this flop is going to be very good for you. Someone probably has a T, someone probably has a flush draw, someone may be slow-playing a 4, tons of outs against you, I don't think it's a good bet. But, I would turn a 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like a sensible way of looking at it to me.

[W. Deranged]

Jason,

Against the entire table, I see the chances of you taking this down with a bet as basically non-existent, and by that I mean not even close to the 5-6% or whatever it is to be worthwhile.

Even when you are lucky and happen to be ahead here there are exactly 2 turn cards you want to see and you'll likely have to dump the hand to any reasonable aggression on later streets.

Rainbow board might be better for obvious reasons ( [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] ) but I honestly don't even think then a bet will win often enough to be worthwhile.

As suggested by a previous poster, I think the best way to proceed is to check the flop with the plan of turning a 2 no matter what.

[sfer]

Bet. Every hand that folds is making a big mistake.