Counting outs - Compared with Simulator

[glass_onion]

For example, say you have and ideal 16 out st8 draw to the nuts, I.E: TJQK, Flop: 89Ax. I would think this is 16 outs to the nuts. 16/45=35% to hit on the turn, 16/44=36%R; or about 70% to hit altogether.

I run these numbers through the V3O/8 Wilson software and run 100k hands, and I hit 29% of the time Turn, 43% river. Why the difference????

Moreover, by the river a Flush hits 37.5% of the time, a FH 30%. These aren't 'no fold' players either. After considering times I am beat, I end up winning with my huge draw 26% of the time overall, scooping 21%. These are obviously different numbers than my "outs" calculation would have me believe. And since I base my fold/call/raise decisions on my outs calculations, I am left to wonder whether my calculations are wrong, or if I was simply taught wrong and have not discounted probperly.


I've been experimenting with o/8 for a few months, and I've really been trying to crack the books and calculate the numbers. I've got hte concepts of pot equtiy and why to bet/raise/cap when I have it, pot odds for calling, and counting outs in general (including discounting outs for various reasons). However, o/8 is such a multifaced game, i feel like i'm missing a few things.

Any help will be greatly appreciated.
-GO

[gergery]

[ QUOTE ]

For example, say you have and ideal 16 out st8 draw to the nuts, I.E: TJQK, Flop: 89Ax. I would think this is 16 outs to the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a 13 out draw. You have 3 of those 16 outs in your hand. 13/45 = 29%

[ QUOTE ]
16/45=35% to hit on the turn, 16/44=36%R; or about 70% to hit altogether.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that methodology double-counts times you hit on both turn and river. It's simplest to calc "1 minus Chances you don't hit on either turn or river"

[ QUOTE ]
Any help will be greatly appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]

try my site www.o8poker.com

--Greg