0/8: 2 strong draws on the flop: raise or call?

[beetman]

Here are 2 recent hands where I held a strong draw and was unclear whether my best play would be a raise or a call.

Hand 1: A poor/clueless player limps (plays lots of "Hold'em hands"/will raise with QQJ2, probably doesn't understand being freerolled, etc.), and I raise with A2d5Ts in the cutoff. Both blinds and the limper call. The flop is Tc3d4s, so I have top pair, 13 way straight draw and 2 backdoor flush draws in addition to counterfeit protection. Everyone checks, I bet, one blind folds and the other calls, and the limper check-raises. Do I make it 3 bets or just call, hoping to keep in the blind?

I really had no idea what type of hand to put the limper on, so I had no idea if I wanted to knock out the blind. If the limper was check-raising some crappy straight draw, it might be in my best interests to knock the blind out to give my weak pair a better chance of winning. And how would things change if I didn't have a pair, just A25x with two backdoor flush draws, which case I have a great draw but nothing that really needs to knock out the big blind?

Hand 2: 3 players limp, the clueless player from the first hand, a mediocre player, and a pretty fishy player. I raise with AQsJ2. The big blind and the limpers call. The flop is 8s4d3s, so I have the nut low and the nut flush draw, but no counterfeit protection. Surprisingly the limper on my immediate right, the pretty fishy one, bets into me. I want to raise for value, but think there's a reasonable chance he has me currently beat for high so perhaps I don't want to thin the field. The other limpers and big blind are somewhat likely to call with weak hands, for example crap like 2359 or whatever, and I don't really benefit from knocking them out unless they catch a straight on the turn and I would have paired on the river, or my low gets counterfeited.

I will post my play and the results in a separate post.

[chaos]

Hand 1:
I would reraise. There are already 12 bets in the pot and I would like to play heads up with position against a clueless player. If the blind calls that's OK too since you have a very strong draw. If you don't hit on the turn the other players may check to you letting you get a free card if you so desire.

Hand 2:
Flat call. You don't want to knock out the other players. Your low is vulnerable to being counterfeited or quartered (even the worst player can pick up an A2). I recommend playing cautiously and seeing who calls and what the turn brings.

[beetman]

Hand 1: I elected to 3-bet. I figured there was a pretty good chance the clueless player would cap with his crap, and I didn't want to give up a chance at 2 small bets. Plus my high is pretty vulnerable.

As it turned out, the clueless player had K744 with a suited king. He capped the flop, and my "worst" good card hit on the turn, an offsuit 5, which scared him into checking and calling on the turn and blank river, but no biggie, a scoop is a scoop.

Hand 2: I elected to just call as I didn't think I wanted to knock anyone out. I would be more certain of just calling with counterfeit protection, but wasn't sure if it's still correct without counterfeit protection. Only the big blind (check)-called. On the turn, I completed my flush but a 4 paired on the board. The fishy player bet, and I elected to raise because I figured the big blind would probably call with a flush if he had a 2nd nut low to go with it, and would probably fold some of the crappy low draws that had could counterfeit mine like 36xx.

The fishy player called, and check-called the blank river. I scooped his A58T, so he was betting the flop with 2nd nut low and top pair, and continued to bet the turn when the flush card hit. I guess he didn't think I had A2 because I just called on the flop, so perhaps my call caused him to lead the turn when he would have check-called if I'd raised the flop. I'm not sure if just calling the turn as well would have been better, though.

[Buzz]

Beetman -

Hand 1: After the flop, you’re about three to one to win something on this deal, probably the whole pot if you make a low straight. You do have favorable odds to make a value raise, but there are other considerations. Your chances of winning here mainly depend on your catching a favorable card on the turn or river (rather than limiting the field). If you make your draw, as you are favored to do, will you want more players in the hand with you or fewer players in the hand with you?

Roughly one time out of four you’ll miss your draw and then will probably lose here. Threes, fours, nines, jacks, queens and kings don’t help you. If the turn and river both are any two of those cards, you'll have missed your draw. Your pair of tens might hold up, especially if you raise on the turn and the raise induces the blind to fold a hand that would have beaten your tens on the river - and if the limper doesn’t hold cards that would beat you on the river. I think that’s the best argument for attempting to drive the blind out by re-raising the check-raiser after the flop.

But there is an additional argument for attempting to drive the blind out by re-raising on the second betting round. A re-raise here might induce a small blind with A5XX to fold, and, if a deuce comes on the turn or river, you’ll be splitting the pot with the A5XX. (Note that a re-raise after the flop will not deter anyone who also has A2XX or 25XX). But if the small blind has A5XX, do you really want to knock the small blind out of the hand? The odds are about 6.67 to 1 against a four on the turn or river. So if the blind has A5XX, the one time out of roughly every eight a deuce is destined to appear on the turn or river, then you will improve your lot by contriving to drive out the blind. But the other seven times out of eight, don’t you want a small blind with A5XX chasing?

If you do, then what is the best action you can take after the check-raise by the limper?

I’m haven't looked at your “results” yet because they don’t matter in terms of how you should play here. You make the play designed to maximize your profit, then stoically let the chips fall where they may. (I will, however, read your results because perhaps I can profit from something you have written. You have good insight into the game.)

Note that you don’t necessarily make the play that gives you the maximum chance to win each hand. If you played in that fashion, you’d simply play all the hands dealt to you all the way to the showdown! You already know that, of course. But if you try to drive the blind out of the hand by re-raising (so that the blind is facing a double bet on the second betting round), isn’t that basically what you’re doing? Aren’t you betting so as to maximize your chances of winning this particular hand, rather than betting so as to maximize your profit for the session?

Hand 2: You’d like to raise for value here, but what will the effect of the raise be? No one can answer this question for you. Will it go, fold, fold, fold, call - or will it go call, call, call, call - or something in between the two? Or is somebody in early position planning a check-raise? (Probably not, but it’s a possibility).

I would just call here and see what happens. You don’t want to run everyone off. Maybe (1) the turn card will be favorable or neutral, (2) someone in early position will bet on the next betting round, and then (3) you can trap some limpers. Or if the turn is one of the thirteen cards that are bad for you, maybe you’ll want to see the river as cheaply as possible. (After the flop, there are 45 missing cards. Seven of them [KsJsTs9s7s6s5s] are very good for you. Another two are enigmatic [2s4s]. Eight cards [8h8d8c4h4c3h3d3c] are bad because they pair the board. Five cards [AhAdAc2h2c] are very bad because they counterfeit your low. The other 23 cards are neutral on the turn).

Just my opinion.

Buzz