Raise the flop w/flush draw?

Nilbud · #1 07-26-2005, 05:02 PM

I am pretty sure I understand pot equity and betting when you have an equity edge, but I'm still a bit confused about situations like this hand. If someone bets into me, do I just call the bet, not wanting to knock anyone out, or do I raise for value?

Reads: UTG is definitely tight, but maybe a little weak. I've seen him fold a few times when bet into on the turn and river. The Button has only played one rotation, so I don't have much on him.

PokerStars 0.25/0.50 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero (poster) checks, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB checks.

Flop: (4.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, Hero...

GrunchCan · #2 07-26-2005, 05:06 PM

I'd just call. The Q by itself isn't very good, since a Q coming off could make someone else a straight or better TP. If you raise and someone folds, you will end up not having an equity edge for that round becasue not enough people called yoiur bet. If you were last to act closing the action, clear raise.

Nilbud · #3 07-26-2005, 05:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If you were last to act closing the action, clear raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes perfect sense now that you've pointed it out. They aren't going anywhere for the sake of one more small bet if I act last.

I'm assuming a raise would be correct if there was one person to act after me, but five people in the hand, seeing as I would still have a 12% or so edge even if they fold?

Saint_D · #4 07-26-2005, 06:21 PM

(When I started this, there were no replies. Now I am sure there are at least 10. Consider this a grunch.)

Pre-Flop Note: This is a questionable call. At least it's the Granny Mae. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Interesting question. This one isn't very clear cut. I am pretty sure call is the best answer. Lets examine some scenarios.

Poker Edge says you have enough pot equity to raise against a UTG with some reasonable hands they hit but didn't raise and against 2 random cards from UTG.

Hand 1: 33.4203 % [ 00.32 00.01 ] { TT-77, T9s, ATo-A2o, QJo, JTo, T9o }
Hand 2: 42.4008 % [ 00.42 00.00 ] { Qs5s }
Hand 3: 24.1789 % [ 00.23 00.01 ] { random }

If you take the "call-call-raise" line if you hit and the call-call-fold line if you miss a typical hand would look like this.

Check Behind

UTG bets, hero checks, BB checks
UTG bets, hero checks, bb checks
utg bets, hero raises, bb folds, utg calls

Assuming you win 40% of the time you average 5.8 bets per hand this way. Not bad.

Raise the flop
utg bet, hero raise, bb fold, utg call
utg check, hero bets, utg check.
utg check, hero bets, utg check.

This line nets you 4.8 bets if you win 40% of the time.

Free Card Play

utg bet, hero raise, bb fold
utg check, hero check
utg bet, hero raise, utg call

If you check the turn if you miss the flush make 3.6 bets.

Conclusion
This is a place where passing up an edge on the flop for a bigger edge on later (more expensive) streets is the right play. Checking the turn, which I do all the time, is a mistake as well. (Provided you don't get 3 bet on the turn. I don't feel like doing any more scenarios though)

-D

Nilbud · #5 07-26-2005, 06:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Conclusion
This is a place where passing up an edge on the flop for a bigger edge on later (more expensive) streets is the right play. Checking the turn, which I do all the time, is a mistake as well. (Provided you don't get 3 bet on the turn. I don't feel like doing any more scenarios though)

[/ QUOTE ]

That pretty much spells it out, the call line is the most profitable.

I would bet the turn against one opponent if a blank fell. Who knows, he could be chasing a straight draw, and if not, I've got at least 9 outs and maybe more.

Duerig · #6 07-26-2005, 07:46 PM

I call. You're mostly drawing to your flush outs, so you want customers in case you hit that big hand.