JJ 4 limpers and 18BB in a real life Pot limit tournament.

[Frazz]

So just after the end of the rebuy period and I have 3600 chips in a £20+2R pot limit tournament. I have just been moved to a new table. I am one away from the button. Big blind is a very good player and I know noone else. I look down to see JJ. I have T3600 and am one of the shorter stacks at the table.


Blinds 100/200 last hand of level:- next level 200/400

250,000 chips in circulation - 45 players left 10 get paid
Utg limps
utg +1 limps
utg +3 limps
utg +4 limps
POT=1100
me?

Results later

[Runner Runner]

Push, and it's not close.

[Frazz]

Thank you.

Thats what I thought and raised pot SB calls allin and utg reraises he has me covered. The other limpers fold. Nightmare.

This is one of the worst cases I could have imagined.

I have T2000 left.

SB could have a large range of hands and can't eliminate me. But the utg raise points to aa kk or ak, maybe qq.

So now I am real trouble.

with T6000 now in the pot I am getting 3 to 1 on my cash. If I fold I will have 5 BB with the blinds having gone up and in a few hands time I will be the BB.

Is this an easy call?

[betgo]

You have to pot it. When you get limpraised by UTG, you have to call. You are getting 3-1 and you are a 4-1 dog if UTG really has a big pair. The limpraise is not going to make you fold, so UTG probably planned a limpraise and has QQ-AA or AQ-AK.

[locutus2002]

I think you can fold this. If he actually plays AK here then its a call if SB is loose.

I think your failure to push is pretty scary to the rest of the table (saving 2K), so I think UTG has an overpair to reraise. I hate to play with 10XBB going to 5XBB, but I think its your best chance.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your failure to push is pretty scary to the rest of the table (saving 2K), so I think UTG has an overpair to reraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pot limit tournament, so he couldn't push.

[locutus2002]

OK, my mistake.

I still might fold it. Both SB and UTG have to have most of their hands in the range that dominates you.

[reecelights]

By your guesses about his range (and I agree AA, KK, or AK, QQ far less likely to limp-raise) He has 16 ways to have AK and 12 ways to have AA or KK, or 4-3 that you are ahead. He may also put you on a steal based on the large number of limpers and your position.

57% AK= 31 wins
42% AA or KK= 8 wins

Add QQ to the mix: 9-8 that he has an overpair
47% AK= 26 wins
53% AA, KK, QQ= 10 wins


You win 39% of the time (or 36% if you add QQ) here and are getting 3-1 (or 75-25) odds. This doesn't consider the possibilty that he put you on a bluff steal and is restealing (which is unlikely but possible). I think it is marginal in that avoiding a confrontation with the big stack is not bad strategy. Therefore, I'm not happy about it, and on average it looks like you're a 3-2 dog, but I think you have to call for a chance to be strong rather than limping into the final 10 players.

[betgo]

I think he is likely to be more than a 3-2 dog, since people are more likely to limpraise with AA or KK than AK. There is also some possibility UTG limped with TT or AJ or something and decided you might be stealing and he has the best hand.

You have to be more than a 3-1 dog on average to fold, so I still think it is a call.

[locutus2002]

I just don't see UTG reraising with AK after SB calls.

I wouldn't be surprised to see SB with a hand like AQ,AK.

I'm not suggesting limping into the money either, but I'd find a better place to put my 2K.