Stars 5/10: time to fold aces?

[imported_PokerJello]

No reads on villain ($1548), he is new to the table and has played only one hand where his 88 won unimproved a decent pot against two drawing opponents. I have him covered.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (7 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP2 ($1350.80)
Hero ($1711)
Button ($1443.50)
SB ($1237.50)
BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ ($1548)
UTG ($995)
MP1 ($1238)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $30</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ raises to $100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $300</font>, BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ calls $200.

Flop: ($605) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($605) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Villain bets $310</font>, Hero ?

I was considering smooth calling pre-flop, but thought the stacks were too deep. When he called my 3-bet pf, I think he can only have KK (most likely), QQ (unlikely) or AA (most unlikely). If I go with my read it's a clear fold or am I thinking too weak-tight? Comments?

[Ricardido]

He probably has Kings so yes.

[FatalError]

or AK or JJ... you needed to bet that flop and see what happened... maybe thats just me but i don't put my opponent on KK here...

[theben]

this certainly is the worst possible flop for you having the best hand. on one hand, since its not K X X or Q X X, its actually better in that it greatly simplifies your decision. id pass on this

[luckOverSkill]

Mmmmm....

I dunno man... he could easily have had AK or maybe
even AQ judging from his pre flop call (he may not be
as tight as you seem to be assuming - maybe he's loose
or even a maniac). It's too bad he just joined
the table.

If you don't want to give him the benefit of the doubt,
then raising the turn or even calling isn't necessarily
a bad thing. Post flop play... fun fun.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[esbesb]

Why in the world didn't you bet the flop?

[amoeba]

what does betting the flop accomplish?

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]
what does betting the flop accomplish?

[/ QUOTE ]

it avoids him drawing cheap to his JT, the exact hand i put him on!

no seriously yeah i fold this... if he has AK he's a donkey but fine, 90% he has KK or QQ.

[imported_PokerJello]

What hands would he call that I am beating? He put in 20% of his stack oop when it was 3-bet pf. If he is any decent he won't have AK or JJ.

[Prevaricator]

[ QUOTE ]
or AK or JJ... you needed to bet that flop and see what happened... maybe thats just me but i don't put my opponent on KK here...

[/ QUOTE ]

are you serious? Just ignore any hands that beat hero and make up a bunch of stuff about JJ betting the turn? Lets also consider what villain puts hero on too. Prob just aces. I doubt he tries to push hero off aces with that bet.