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#1
07-25-2005, 06:04 PM
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100 NL- Enough information to lay down AA?
UTG+2 is new the table.
I only have 15 hands with BB, he's at 33/15/5. Is this an easy call, marginal call, marginal fold, or easy fold? Seat 2- BB $63.75 in chips Seat 3- Hero $297.63 in chips Seat 4 - $97 in chips Seat 5 - UTG+2 $40 in chips Seat 6 - $161.60 in chips Seat 7 - $40.25 in chips Seat 9 - $36 in chips *** BLIND [dealer 6] *** BRANDO024 - small blind sitout SB - Post small blind $0.50 BB - Post big blind $1 UTG+2 - Post $1 Hero - Pocket [Ad,As] Hero - Raises $1 to $5 Seat 4 - Folds UTG+2 - Calls $4 Seat 6 - Folds SB- Folds BB - Calls $4 *** FLOP [2s,3d,5c] *** BB - Checks Hero - Bets $8 UTG+2 - All-In(Raise) $8 to $35 BB - All-In(Raise) $35 to $58.75 Hero? 
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#2
07-25-2005, 06:09 PM
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Re: 100 NL- Enough information to lay down AA?
Id say so yes.
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#3
07-25-2005, 06:10 PM
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Re: 100 NL- Enough information to lay down AA?
freakin fugly. I think one of them has a set, but not both. This could just as easily be a couple of donks with 88 and 99 and they think they have the immortal nuts. The problem is that there is 2 of them and one likely has a set. I'd consider folding this here, but it's gonna hurt to.
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#4
07-25-2005, 06:13 PM
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Re: 100 NL- Enough information to lay down AA?
It wont hurt that bad, you have an overpair and on that board is nowhere close to the nuts.
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#5
07-25-2005, 06:35 PM
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Re: 100 NL- Enough information to lay down AA?
I'm prone to make some loose calls, but I don't think there's enough information to lay down AA here.
1) Your UTG preflop raise to 5xBB indicates cards that did not connect with that flop. 2) Your flop bet of ~1/2 the pot looks like a standard continuation bet, so the villains could easily figure you for missed high cards. 3) UTG+2 is shortstacked, so I have a hard time seeing him making the preflop call with 22, 33, 55, A4, 46, or any other hand that has you beat. If he did, I have a hard time seeing him push all-in on the flop with one of those hands. 4) I'm less sure about BB, but I don't think it's unreasonable for him to have 44 or an overpair, and I think he should have one of those hands enough to make a call correct. When combined with your flop "continuation bet", this could also be a move to isolate UTG+2 if BB figures you for high cards vs his smallish overpair. 5) Pot odds: you're about getting ~117:51 or about 2.4 to 1 to call. 6) They're both pretty shortstacked, so it's not too expensive even if you lose. I know this is not a great reason, but it would be a much easier fold if it was for all of your chips -- as it is, this pot represents only about 20% of your stack, and you still cover the rest of the table if you lose. Without any more specific reads, I would call here, but I'd love to hear counter arguments for folding. -cj
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#8
07-25-2005, 06:44 PM
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Re: 100 NL- Enough information to lay down AA?
Great post proof. Very well thought out, I look forward to hearing more from you in the future. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
This is a really close decision, but I think I call here. As Proof mentioned, you're getting 2.4-1 on your call here. They could both easily have medium pairs here. What further sways my thinking here is that you a gutshot and the 2 remaining aces. According to twodimes, you're still about 20% to win even if someone has top set here. Close decision, but I think it's a call.
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#10
07-25-2005, 07:11 PM
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Re: 100 NL- Enough information to lay down AA?
[ QUOTE ]
1) Your UTG preflop raise to 5xBB indicates cards that did not connect with that flop. [/ QUOTE ] 22, 33, 55 are all legitimate callers. Given that this is $100NL, I could easily see A4s, 23s, even 53s to a 4BB raise. [ QUOTE ] 2) Your flop bet of ~1/2 the pot looks like a standard continuation bet, so the villains could easily figure you for missed high cards. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but that's a hell of a raise and reraise. [ QUOTE ] 3) UTG+2 is shortstacked, so I have a hard time seeing him making the preflop call with 22, 33, 55, A4, 46, or any other hand that has you beat. If he did, I have a hard time seeing him push all-in on the flop with one of those hands. [/ QUOTE ] You assume they're thinking players who care about getting good implied odds. The chances are this isn't the case. Even so, they only called $4 with ~50 behind. Regarding postflop, people tend to get excited with good hands when there's action. [ QUOTE ] 4) I'm less sure about BB, but I don't think it's unreasonable for him to have 44 or an overpair, and I think he should have one of those hands enough to make a call correct. When combined with your flop "continuation bet", this could also be a move to isolate UTG+2 if BB figures you for high cards vs his smallish overpair. [/ QUOTE ] Agree except for the bit in italics. [ QUOTE ] 5) Pot odds: you're about getting ~117:51 or about 2.4 to 1 to call. [/ QUOTE ] Irrelevant, this is either way ahead or way behind and it's a judgment call. Best odds you're getting if behind are 4:1. [ QUOTE ] 6) They're both pretty shortstacked, so it's not too expensive even if you lose. I know this is not a great reason, but it would be a much easier fold if it was for all of your chips -- as it is, this pot represents only about 20% of your stack, and you still cover the rest of the table if you lose. [/ QUOTE ] I see where you're coming from, but I disagree with the logic. I think this is a marginal fold. There have been times I've folded AA against shorter stacks like this and seen crap like overpairs, however most of the time when this kind of action heats up they have something. I think you're behind more than half the time and the odds aren't good enough to make this a call.
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