Pushing a marginal hand

[GooperMC]

SB ( $15.75 )
Hero ( $27.20 )
v1 ( $24.35 )

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 calls, I call, 3 callers.

Table has been very passive so I don’t expect a raise from behind and this is a hand I would like to see a cheap flop with against many opponents

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB bets $1, I call $1, v1 raises pot (6.25), SB calls, Hero re-raises all in, SB calls, villain calls.

I called because the value of my hand is greatly diminished by the 2 low cards and I was hoping to see the turn and act accordingly. However the raise by v1 changes everything. SB calling v1 raise basically pot commits him so my raise was intended to either
- Get HU against the SB with a bunch of dead money in the middle
- Get into a large 3 way pot because I think that it is very unlikely that I don’t have 33% of the PE 3 way.

I am still trying to figure out when it is appropriate to play for my stack. Do you guys play for your stack here?

[Wintermute]

With the small blind coming along, it looks OK to me. You'd prefer to have a pair rather than ONLY draws, but what the hell--you don't want to get scared off on the turn if a low comes, since your hand's strength in built around the fact that there are two cards to come.

[emptyshell]

You likely have 13 outs to get the high. 6 of those also put a low out. So, assuming the possiblity of a set and the possibility of winning high if a Q or J hits cancel out, you have 6 outs to get half the pot and 7 outs to get the full pot as long as the other card isn't one of the 20 or so that put a low out. So, approximating, about 38% of the time you get half the pot and 15% of the time you get the whole thing.

33 - 15 = 18. 38 * 0.5 = 19. 19 ~= 18, so the move was close to EV neutral. If you like to gamble, go for it.

[Wintermute]

[ QUOTE ]
You likely have 13 outs to get the high. 6 of those also put a low out. So, assuming the possiblity of a set and the possibility of winning high if a Q or J hits cancel out, you have 6 outs to get half the pot and 7 outs to get the full pot as long as the other card isn't one of the 20 or so that put a low out. So, approximating, about 38% of the time you get half the pot and 15% of the time you get the whole thing.

33 - 15 = 18. 38 * 0.5 = 19. 19 ~= 18, so the move was close to EV neutral. If you like to gamble, go for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I count more outs... 18 for the nut high (8 nut flush outs, the other 3 7's, 2 9's, 3 J's, and 2 Q's all make the nut str). Of those, 8 (all the 7's and the other four low flush cards) put a low out, but still, this is a real strong hand. 14 effective outs with two cards to come should be EV+, right? (Assuming you let other stuff cancel like you mentioned.)

Throw in the extra caller and it is an absolute no brainer, no?

I think this is less of a gamble and more of a real good play.

[got0uts]

[ QUOTE ]
You likely have 13 outs to get the high. 6 of those also put a low out. So, assuming the possiblity of a set and the possibility of winning high if a Q or J hits cancel out, you have 6 outs to get half the pot and 7 outs to get the full pot as long as the other card isn't one of the 20 or so that put a low out. So, approximating, about 38% of the time you get half the pot and 15% of the time you get the whole thing.

33 - 15 = 18. 38 * 0.5 = 19. 19 ~= 18, so the move was close to EV neutral. If you like to gamble, go for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure if I understand you.

4 sevens, 3 nines, 3 Jacks, and 3 queens give him nut straight. That's 13 outs.

2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] give him nut flush. That's additional 5 outs. 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] may even counterfeits someone's low draws.

about 38% of the time you get half the pot and 15% of the time you get the whole thing.

33 - 15 = 18. 38 * 0.5 = 19. 19 ~= 18, so the move was close to EV neutral.

Where did the number 33 come from? What do those two equations mean (33 - 15 = 18. 38 * 0.5 = 19)? Thanks.

[Chamonyx]

I want to carry on playing this hand after the flop and against these 2 I am probably playing to win $20 or 70% of my stack. When you push, you are facing a call for 20% of your stack. I would be slightly worried about being free-rolled for a FH by SB, so I would probably just call here and see the turn. That also gives me the chance to push 1 or 2 of the others out if a nice high card comes and increase my chances of scooping. If everyone is all in on the flop, that option disappears.

[emptyshell]

I missed the other side of the straight and didn't think about two callers. I guess you're right.

[TurdFerguson]

I push here because it's entirely likely that one if not both of your opponents is playing A2 with a non-nut high draw. It's possible that one of them has A2 and a set, but you're not going to know by just calling. What kind of read did you have on either opponent before the hand, if any?