AJ v. Murderous Ghouls, flop decision

[mantasm]

I haven't posted a hand in a long while. Here's one. I've been at this table for a few orbits and lost 15BB or so. My image, if I have one, is probably overaggressive.

I have A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG, loose and aggressive, limps. I raise on the button. The loose passive BB calls.

Flop: 6.x SB

K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB bets, UTG raises.

What's up?

[Nick C]

Ah, jeez. Upon seeing the flop, I wouldn't be too disappointed, since my collection of weak draws adds up to a decent-enough hand.

However, by the time it was my action and two bets to me, I wouldn't be sure what to do. If by some chance my overcard outs are good, I'm almost getting an even return on any flop bets that go in, versus two opponents. But the passive BB led into a PFR with a king and queen on the board, which isn't such a good sign, and while I don't know how much credit to give to the LAG's raise, he's not letting any fears of being trapped between two big hands slow him down yet.

My first instinct is to fold, getting only about 10:2, not closing the action. But I'm tempted to raise instead, and what I can imagine myself doing in fact is compromising and calling.

I have three choices and am having trouble eliminating or favoring any of them. So whatever I ended up doing, I figure there's about a 67 percent chance it would be a mistake.

[admiralfluff]

I think a raise could be close here, but would depend on some more in depth reads.

First of all, what are villains' pf raising standards? Will the lag limp a hand like AK, AQ, or KQ for deception, and is the LP too passive to raise such hands? Is the LAG raising any K or Q on the flop here?

Secondly, are either of these guys donkers, or will the LP tend to go into c/c and the LAG for a c/r on 4th after facing flop aggression?

Your table image might be a consideration here: have you been over-agg-LAGging enough that the players will completely disregard a flop 3 bet?

If you can be confident of a free turn I think a raise is good. If you can't be sure about a free card, I don't think calling 2 is worth it, as you will have to fold the turn often and give up your draw (~75% of the time). I don't feel like doing any real calculations, but it looks like it is only worth continuing if you can increase your flop investment by 50% to almost double your chances of hitting by getting a free card. So I say raise or fold depending on reads, probably fold if those provided are the only reads you have, as I wouldn't be surprised to see a donking from the LAG.

[sekrah]

Easy fold.

You're drawing to 7 outs, 3 of which might not be any good.

[mantasm]

I should also point out that although BB almost certainly has a pair, there's a good chance I'm ahead of UTG because he'd been bluff betting and raising most streets in most hands and he'd probably raise preflop with most hands that connect with this board. I would guess I'd have him beat 30-50% of the time. If I'm behind I think I'll be 3bet by UTG only if he has top pair or better, which he probably does not.

[mantasm]

el oh bump, i thought this was interesting

[newhizzle]

i fold, i dont like loose passive betting into me or loose aggressive making it cost double to outdraw him

[Bodhi]

Uhhh, fold? For 2 cold you have to hit your gutshot here to win.

[W. Deranged]

Fold.

It is very unlikely you are up against two draws. Since there's very little chance of being ahead, and since you need to improve to win, we can just do an ole outs calculations. I think the combo of the gutshot, A, and bdfd outs adds up to maybe 6.5 to 7 outs. Getting a little more than about 5-1 effective, I think we fold, particularly considering that we might get three-bet behind.

[TheHip41]

Fold, then get pissed when they both miss their flush/straight draws when the turn and river are 2 2 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]