a question about asking a question about Omaha

elitegimp · #1 07-24-2005, 06:37 PM

It seems like if I flop a set in Omaha, and then a card above my set pairs, I frequently lose to a bigger boat. Such as

"I have AJJ2, board is KJ32K, villian has KK73"

I mean, that's obviously a made up case, but you get the point. My question is, if I want to calculate the probability of this happening, what are good assumptions to make?

I'm thinking of the following:
* I flop bottom or middle set, and opponent flops an over pair or two pair (or an overset)
* Opponent turns or rivers a boat for the win

I could then use this to get a rough estimate of it happening with 5 people seeing the flop, or something... right?

lighterjobs · #2 07-24-2005, 07:58 PM

are you wanting to calculate the odds of an over card of your set pairing the board then giving the possibility of a larger full house, or the probability of someone have a larger full house by the river?

elitegimp · #3 07-25-2005, 02:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
are you wanting to calculate the odds of an over card of your set pairing the board then giving the possibility of a larger full house, or the probability of someone have a larger full house by the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

I want the probability of someone having a full house by the river... but more specifically I'm looking for reasonable assumptions to make before calculating this (I can do the math myself, once I know what I'm trying to figure out).

Pretty much it's a sample size problem, combined with me not paying attention to when it doesn't happen... so it seems to occur all the time (which it obviously doesn't)

pokerrookie · #4 07-25-2005, 01:56 PM

Perhaps I am missing something, but doesnt villain have quads? And you were way behind on the flop right?

LetYouDown · #5 07-25-2005, 02:08 PM

Assuming you didn't mean for the villain to have a higher set on the flop, doesn't this answer your question? I just changed the K to an overcard (Q in this case):

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=o8&...%0AKs+Qc+7h+3s

I realize this is simplistic, but otherwise what are you looking for?

elitegimp · #6 07-25-2005, 08:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming you didn't mean for the villain to have a higher set on the flop, doesn't this answer your question? I just changed the K to an overcard (Q in this case):

http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=o8&...%0AKs+Qc+7h+3s

I realize this is simplistic, but otherwise what are you looking for?

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the link -- the problem is I don't know what I'm looking for... I went through a bad streak where every time I flopped a set and hit a boat, someone had a bigger boat... I know it's totally a small-sample-size problem (like, maybe five or six times), I'd just feel a lot better if I knew how often to expect it to happen (which is tough, since I don't know how to phrase the question [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])