Review: Hand 31, J5s

[SlantNGo]

The hand:

- - - HAND 31 - - -
PreFlop: Hero is SB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (10 Players)
UTG calls, 3 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, 1 fold,

Flop: (4.00 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, MP2 calls,

Turn: (4.00 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets, MP2 raises, Hero calls,

River: (8.00 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, Hero folds,

Final Pot: 8.00 BB

Results below:
MP2 doesn't show.
Outcome: MP2 wins 8.00 BB.

-------------------------------

Okay, I don't like this flop play at all for three reasons (with #1 being most important and #3 being least important):

1. The pot is small
2. There is an Ace and flush draw on board
3. Our kicker is terrible

1. The pot is 5 SB at this point. Counting outs, I discount our five outs to 2-pair and trips to about 4 or 4.5 due to the flush draw on board. With the backdoor flush draw, we have 5.5 or 6 outs, so this should be a fold.

2. This is read-dependent, depending on how often MP2 would take a shot at the pot on the flop. If there was no Ace on the flop, or as mentioned in #1, no flush draw, then I like the raise a little bit more, although I probably still fold.

3. Our kicker is terrible. This doesn't concern me a whole lot, and I weight the importance of this much less than #1 or #2. If our kicker was better, however, I may be more inclined to continue.

Summary: I check/fold.

[Dave G.]

I agree with this.

Also, I fold preflop. I don't think this hand will pay off often enough with only 2 limpers, even with the SB discount.

[Redd]

I agree; against most opponent's I'd c/f it. I kinda let this one slide because there is definitely a nontrivial fraction of opponents I would raise here with, and the original hero may have had such a read.

[thesharpie]

I complete preflop and fold the flop without a read.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
1. The pot is 5 SB at this point. Counting outs, I discount our five outs to 2-pair and trips to about 4 or 4.5 due to the flush draw on board. With the backdoor flush draw, we have 5.5 or 6 outs, so this should be a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless Hero is ahead, in which case folding is an 3-4 SB immediate error plus whatever other bets are made assuming hero's hand holds up. I don't mind playing for the pot here. Passing up on this is -EV in the long run, but probably not hugely so. Playing it also gives hero some added meta-game action if he gets to show it down.

[ QUOTE ]
2. This is read-dependent, depending on how often MP2 would take a shot at the pot on the flop. If there was no Ace on the flop, or as mentioned in #1, no flush draw, then I like the raise a little bit more, although I probably still fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so worried about the flush draw and the ace. It was only 3 to the flop, not 6 to the flop. That means that the likelihood of the draw being live or the ace being played is smaller.

[ QUOTE ]
3. Our kicker is terrible. This doesn't concern me a whole lot, and I weight the importance of this much less than #1 or #2. If our kicker was better, however, I may be more inclined to continue.

[/ QUOTE ]

This actually stands out in my mind more than the ace and the flush draw. MP2's position would suggest that hands like J9s or QJo are very real possibilities.

[ QUOTE ]
Summary: I check/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a coin toss for me. Sometimes I'll let it go, sometimes I'll play for it.

[@bsolute_luck]

great another marked hand i had. the flop play is major spewage.

preflop is a tad loose, but not a MAJOR leak or anything 3-handed.

the debate probably will be whether to continue on in the hand after the flop. i could see arguments both ways, but i'd probably check/call, check/fold the turn UI, depending on what fell on the turn i will decided bet/fold, check/call, check/raise.

[RyGreen18]

[ QUOTE ]
i could see arguments both ways, but i'd probably check/call

[/ QUOTE ]

i think if you decide to stay in on this flop (which is clearly a marginal decision), you have to go for a c/r, the primary reason being that you will gain folding equity on the turn and may get a J with a higher kicker to fold.

Edit: I'm bet/folding this turn 100% of the time. Calling a raise on the turn and not getting to showdown is awful IMO

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i could see arguments both ways, but i'd probably check/call

[/ QUOTE ]

i think if you decide to stay in on this flop (which is clearly a marginal decision), you have to go for a c/r, the primary reason being that you will gain folding equity on the turn and may get a J with a higher kicker to fold.

Edit: I'm bet/folding this turn 100% of the time. Calling a raise on the turn and not getting to showdown is awful IMO

[/ QUOTE ]

You missed the flush draw... I hope...

[GrunchCan]

I check-fold or bet-fold the flop. If you are looking for fold equity, you have it by virtue of being first in on the flop - the CR probably just sticks the opponent to the pot, since he's not folding on the flop.

The intention to continue with this hand on the flop seems like a major leak to me, and the CR to protect concept seem misapplied since we have nothing to protect. Our kicker probably won't even play anyway. A better Jack might fold, but who cares? We're still going to lose.

The intention to bet-call the turn and the check-fold the river also seems like a leak. I'd rather check the turn with outs here, since we can call the 1 BB to draw the heart.

Edited formatting & typos

[ellipse_87]

I like the flop raise, given that MP2 is last to act and his raise is consistent with a semi-bluff. It's apparent that he's hit one of his outs on the turn, making either either a pair of Q's or a broadway. He could be bluffing, but with this board and your cards, I see him bluffing with a lesser hand far less than 20% of the time, which is what you need to go to showdown. So I'd fold the turn after his raise.