Facing strange turn bet with weak hand

Henke · #1 07-22-2005, 03:57 PM

BB is new to the table, so no reads there. Button on the other hand is a true callingstation, sees probably around 80-90% of the flops, goes to the river with nothing, and he has even called river bets with 9 high! However, he's been folding some hands to my raises pf...

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, MP calls, Hero caps, Button calls, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls, MP calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, MP folds

detruncate · #2 07-22-2005, 04:10 PM

We're getting ~11:1. Can you come up with an argument that will allow us to continue? Consider it a challenge.

2+2 Junkie · #3 07-22-2005, 04:51 PM

grunching (and not much experience with 6-max).

I would fold here, you don't have anything, there is a flush on the board, and you only have 3 outs.

I am not sure if he has anything either, maybe only a flush draw/flush now, if your A or K was a heart, no brainer. I would fold though.

@bsolute_luck · #4 07-22-2005, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
We're getting ~11:1. Can you come up with an argument that will allow us to continue? Consider it a challenge.

[/ QUOTE ]

the only argument i can come up with is he's donkbetting with a 4th [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you've got ~4 outs, which is barely enough with implied odds. a problem is you have MP behind you and i'd hate to be in the middle of that if he raises too.

...but i don't play 6-max [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

DavidC · #5 07-22-2005, 10:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
We're getting ~11:1. Can you come up with an argument that will allow us to continue? Consider it a challenge.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fold.

Percy101 · #6 07-22-2005, 10:31 PM

BB would have to be a complete goon to bet into that board against a pf raiser/reraiser with a hand that can't even beat ace high. Without any reads on BB I would fold despite the large pot, especially with the button still involved who could just as easily have paired up than be calling down with absolute doodoo.

#7 07-22-2005, 10:39 PM

I'm perplexed by it. My best guess is that he had suited AK, AQ, KQ, or some similar broadway, and thought it best to stay on his draw "on the cheap," and then hit his draw on the turn and stepped on the gas again. Or he's completely bluffing. I don't know. I have to say, however, with that possibility, and the possibility of a straight (and we can't entirely discount the calling station), I fold. In other words, just the nature of this board itself, and with overcards, I probably fold here.

EDIT: After reading the above posts, I'm amending to say I call down. I overlooked the large pot. I can't say that I lose here 90% of the time, so I stay in.

detruncate · #8 07-22-2005, 11:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We're getting ~11:1. Can you come up with an argument that will allow us to continue? Consider it a challenge.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The OP thought that the decision was difficult enough to ask the question. I was offering the opportunity to explore the problem in detail. Something along the lines of "The range of hands I put Villain on is _____, and I can find x number of outs, and the guy behind me will probably _____ because he's generally _____, therefore..."

It seems like the sort of situation in which telling someone to fold or call isn't very helpful. The thought process that led to the question being asked needs to be examined. What part of the decision is causing the problem? Where does the doubt creep in?

Henke · #9 07-23-2005, 09:11 AM

Sorry that I didn't follow this one up sooner, had to run yesterday..

Anyway, the actual reason that I posted was that I wasn't sure wether to raise or call, never really considered folding... This might be a big leak though.

But what hands can we put BB on if we assume he's a reasonable player? Well, PF it would be something like AK, AA-JJ, perhaps AQ(s?), KQs?. With what hands will he just check the flop, and not even checkraise? The probability of AA-JJ is now quite small... If he has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (which is a possiblity), why doesn't he try for the checkraise? Or maybe even wait until the river to raise his monster? This is one of the most common bluffs I see at microlimits. It's not that bad neither IMHO. Villain is getting 10:1, and if I have a hand like JJ-QQ and he has AKo, he'll still have 6 outs to beat me if I call. So if he is indeed capable of this bluff, the odds of him being on a bluff is 8:1.

With that in mind, if button wouldn't be a true callingstation, I would raise here most of the time trying to push him out and maybe take a free showdown. But with him being a callingstation, I just froze up and didn't know what to do, so I just called, intending to fold the river UI (or if a forth [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] fell).

Anyway, here's the rest of the hand:
Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, Hero raises, Button calls, 1 fold, BB 3-bets, MP calls, Hero caps, Button calls, BB calls, MP calls.

Flop: (16.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, MP checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls, MP calls.

Turn: (10.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, MP folds, Hero calls, Button calls.

River: (13.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB

Results in white below: 
BB has Jh 5s (one pair, eights).
Hero has Kd Ad (one pair, eights).
Button has 2c Qh (one pair, eights).
Outcome: Hero wins 13.25 BB. 

Wether the turn call might be correct probably comes down to if the opponent can reraise pf with weaker aces than AK. If that's not true, calling the turn can not be correct.

DavidC · #10 07-23-2005, 06:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We're getting ~11:1. Can you come up with an argument that will allow us to continue? Consider it a challenge.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

The OP thought that the decision was difficult enough to ask the question. I was offering the opportunity to explore the problem in detail. Something along the lines of "The range of hands I put Villain on is _____, and I can find x number of outs, and the guy behind me will probably _____ because he's generally _____, therefore..."

It seems like the sort of situation in which telling someone to fold or call isn't very helpful. The thought process that led to the question being asked needs to be examined. What part of the decision is causing the problem? Where does the doubt creep in?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right about that, and I wasn't trying to be a prick, or anything...

It's just that villain has just bet into a crowd, including the preflop capper, and hero doesn't really have a good hand. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Calling station could have anything, and the other two guys don't really have reads.

One issue that we're faced with here is that this looks like it could be a turn donk bet with a flush draw. However, we're only looking at incorrectly folding to hands like AQo with the A or Q of hearts.

If buddy's got JJ with the Jh it's starting to get a bit ugly, because we don't really know if we're reverse-dominated by the calling station, or if the guy's already got a set.

I figure we have somewhere between 6 outs and 0 outs, with a happy medium being something like 2.75 If we hit our outs, it's not like we can raise, right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So I think it's a fold, but I could be wrong.

--Dave.

Edit: I haven't ever played 6-max, though. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Also, I don't think that OP can really say that an unknown villain is going to be bluffing based on game theory.