Top Boat

Danenania · #1 07-21-2005, 08:05 PM

Party 10/20 6-max, 6-handed.

Unknown doesn't seem too bad MP openraises. I reraise KJs from the CO. Slightly loose, slightly passive, unimaginitive player calls two in the BB, MP calls. Three to the flop for 9.5 SB.

Flop: KK5r

Checked to me, I bet, BB checkraises, MP calls, I reraise, BB calls, now MP call-caps, all call. Three to the turn for 10.75 bb's.

Turn: 5

BB bets, MP raises, I call two bets, BB reraises, MP caps. I fold.

Edit: BB's stats are 32/9/1.5 btw.

kapw7 · #2 07-21-2005, 08:13 PM

So MP has the other king and BB has a 5? Can you be so sure that someone has 55? Is there something I'm missing?

JoshuaD · #3 07-21-2005, 08:20 PM

I cannot imagine there being any good reason to fold this river, ever. There is 1 hand that beats you in the deck.

wheelz · #4 07-21-2005, 08:25 PM

no no no

That's such a huge laydown...

Danenania · #5 07-21-2005, 08:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I cannot imagine there being any good reason to fold this river, ever. There is 1 hand that beats you in the deck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually think calling would be as bad as you think the fold is. What are my effective odds here when I'm faced with 2 the second time?

Rubeskies · #6 07-21-2005, 10:00 PM

So let's see, the pot is something like 20 BBs when it gets back to you on the turn. Neither player seems like they are slowing down anytime soon so there is reason to believe it may get capped at the least a bet and a raise probably. So to get to showdown you're gonna have to pay anywhere from 3-6 bets, and I would believe you'd have to pay 6 most often.

So you'd probably be paying 6 to win 32 by the river which means you have to be good roughly 18% of the time.

BUT, you are doing no better than splitting here, that seems pretty obvious. So taking that into account your effective odds are HALF as good as that 18% appears. Does one of your opponents have 55 here > 10% of the time. I'm gonna say yes. Only one of them can have a K and we have a read that one isn't nuts and the other seems decent.

I can't believe I'm saying this but I think I like the fold.

Danenania · #7 07-21-2005, 10:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Neither player seems like they are slowing down anytime soon so there is reason to believe it may get capped at the least a bet and a raise probably. So to get to showdown you're gonna have to pay anywhere from 3-6 bets, and I would believe you'd have to pay 6 most often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree I will almost always pay 6 to see a SD. The river is very likely to be capped if I stay in for this reason: whoever has the K will assume I don't have a K when I slow down, and that therefore the other player must have the other K, which must make him think I'm just calling along with AA or something. So he'll figure that yes he's splitting with a K but he might as well cap on the river since I seem so eager to donate to the split pot. I think it's clear from the previous action that whoever has the K hasn't even considered the chance of 55.

Danenania · #8 07-21-2005, 10:47 PM

Also it's 6 to win 28.75 (minus rake) by my math. I think you included the bets I'd be putting in on the river. So assuming the river would be capped and that I'm drawing to a split pot at best I'd need to be good about 42% of the time to call down profitably.

RunDownHouse · #9 07-21-2005, 10:51 PM

Wow, bad misclick. That's rough.

But seriously, I'm not too interested in putting opponents on the one hand in the deck that can beat me, especially in a huge pot, especially with everything I've read about how wacky the 10/20 game can be. You don't think one is pushing an overpair or a 5 and the other is pushing a K since you appeared to slow down already on the turn?

But maybe that's why I've never experienced the 10/20 personally in the first place.

Rubeskies · #10 07-21-2005, 10:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Also it's 6 to win 28.75

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, you're right.