Accumulate or wait?

[Luke]

Here's the situation:

*Online MTT
*20 people left (started with ~700)
*well into the money already but top 3 spots pay the bulk of the money
*the blinds are 1,500/3,000
*you have about T 24,000 - 8 times the BB (or an M of 5.5)
*your stack is only a little below average and you can damage any stack at your table
*most players are playing *tight* (even the big stacks)
*you've been one of the most aggressive players at the table for a while but have not been caught with your pants down yet
*you have a slight skill advantage over the average player
*there are about 10 minutes left with these blinds
*you hold a mediocre hand in mid position

You have 2 choices:

1. Fold = lose nothing, gain nothing

2. Push = where on average you will increase your stack by T 1,200 (5%) but broken down it looks like this:

a) 75% of the time you will win the blinds
b) 8% of the time you will double up
c) 17% of the time you will go broke

Fold or Push?

Is this easy? If not, at which percentage increase to your stack does it become an easy decision?

Are there factors that I'm not considering but I should be?

Luke

[Luke]

*Bump*

[danger_mouse]

Define "mediocre"? If you define it as Q7o or better, than I will push everytime IF it is folded to me in mid-position. For that matter, depending on just how "tight" the table really is, I'll consider weaker hands as well.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
a) 75% of the time you will win the blinds
b) 8% of the time you will double up
c) 17% of the time you will go broke

[/ QUOTE ]

This = CEV 21,1235 or CEV-2865...pretty easy fold.

[ QUOTE ]
at which percentage increase to your stack does it become an easy decision?


[/ QUOTE ]

When you think its +EV.

Regards,
Woodguy

[A_PLUS]

Total chips in play, and the distribution of the chips are important. Also the exact payout structure.

Also there are personal preferences at play. If your question is just about $EV, then the above info will do. But there are certain cases where anyone would (and should) pass up +$EV spots for lower variance.

For instance. Lets say this is a WPT event, where 19th and 20th pay 25K$, but 17th pays 40K. If there are a few extreme short stacks, I am passing on a push that makes my $EV 41K$ vs the current 39K$ if it involves a risk of only making 25K$.

Is that optimal poker theory? No. Is it optimal economic theory? Given my preferences it is.

[Luke]

Define "mediocre"? If you define it as Q7o or better, than I will push everytime IF it is folded to me in mid-position. For that matter, depending on just how "tight" the table really is, I'll consider weaker hands as well.

Sorry I didn't make myself clear but the actual hand in this example is irrelevant. The bottom line with regard to strength of your hand is that you will win the blinds 75%, go bust 17%, and double up 8% of the time.

If it helps you to think about it more practically, think of a hand like 98o.

Luke

[Luke]

This = CEV 21,1235 or CEV-2865...pretty easy fold.

Bear with me now, as I'm still learning tournament basics, but how do you calculate CEV?

I know it stems from the concept that tournament chips change value throughout a tournament and thus it differs from straight $ EV, but I don't know how to calculate it.

Thanks,

Luke

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
I know it stems from the concept that tournament chips change value throughout a tournament and thus it differs from straight $ EV, but I don't know how to calculate it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just did a straight chip EV from your numbers.

I personally belive that $EV and CEV do not divirge enough for me to pay attention to $EV unless the payouts go up per placement (at final table), or if it is a high buy in with many competitors, so that going from say 20th to 19th is enough $$$ to make me go hmmmmm.

Others on this site will say that $EV and CEV diverge earlier, but I think it more a matter of opinion about the $$$ involved.

An ecomonic question, rather than a straight math question.

Regards,
Woodguy

[davidross]

I lean to pushing with 8bb's left, but I clarify by a couple of conditions. I haven't pushed in the last couple of hands, and my mediocre hand isn't Ax or Kx. I find when I'm called it is AK so often, I'm much more tempted to play mediocre hands like suited connectors and gappers.

I want to keep pushing as often as possible at this stage. I hate folding for 3 orbits only to pick up a big hand and have everyone else fold. When I push once a round I know the observant players are thinking "this guys pushing crap, I'm going to look him up as soon as I get an ace", and those are the times you double up.

[Luke]

I just did a straight chip EV from your numbers.

OK, I might be doing something wrong, but by my using my assumptions I see us as having a positive result of 1,287:

(.75 * 4,500) + (.17 * -24,000) + [.08 * (24,000 + (.2 * 3,000) + (.2 * 1,500))]

*not that it matters much, but since there are 5 players to act after you, 20% of the times you will be called with by the SB and 20% of those times you will be called by the BB.

Luke