KK Stop and Go.

[ryanghall]

Empire 200 NL full ring. Villain has $206, I have him covered. He is 15/6/7.2 over 1100 hands.

I get K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in EMP

folded to me and I raise to $8. Villain calls right after me in MP. All else fold.

Flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet $18. Villain raises to $50. I call. I don't *think* he would play a set like this but I'm not sure.

Turn is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet $50. Villain calls.

River is Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I check...

Do you like how I played this hand? What do you do if he pushes?

Ryan

[gol4pro]

Why don't you think he has a set? In addition, a cold call of 50$ on the turn worries me from someone with a 7.2 agg.

TT/JJ/88 maybe? Pocket pair seems most likely given his numbers and the call preflop.

Could he do this with like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]on the flop? Actually, come to think of it, that might be his hand.

His play here is either a big flush draw, or a set. I like the river check. A missed spade draw may bet, and so will a set.

[rikz]

So Villain has 15% V$PIP and 6% PFR and 7 & total aggression.

He did not reraise, so I think his aggression numbers would hint that he doesn't have QQ, KK or AA with which he should raise to "see where he's at" with QQ and get more money in with the AA/KK.

AKs, AQs or AKo might call instead of reraise. After that, he's playing JJ or lower pairs for set value. If he likes suited connectors, he might be playing a 7s 8s, but he is so tight preflop that playing in a $8 raised pot in MP with no idea whether more players will come in behind him (or reraise, even), I'm not inclined at this point to put him on a suited connector.

Given the stack sizes relative to the raise, calling 22, 66 and 99 for set value would have been a good call for him.

The only likely hands you beat that a TAA calls preflop and then raises your post flop bet with are probably As Ks, As Qs, TT, and JJ - all of which would be reraising to get you to fold a missed "AK" or "AQ" type of hand.

Of course it is possible that he might have just called with QQ, so QQ and that 7s 8s that I think are unlikely based on preflop play are nevertheless possible.

As for not playing a set like this, I think he might. I'd play a set like this -- especially if you are a tight preflop raiser. I'd put you on an over pair as your most likely holding and then I'd bet as much as I think you'd call in order to (1) get more money in and (2) make you pay a premium in case you are on an As Ks type of draw.

When he just calls your turn bet instead of pushing, however, I become less inclined to believe he has a set already. Now it looks more like that over pair TT, JJ, or maybe QQ or the OESD/OESFD. So, checking the river and calling any bet villain makes looks good because you want him to push with his missed draw instead of folding to a bet by you. You only lose to QQ hitting a freak set on the river, and by this point I think you're pot committed to seeing the showdown.

But what if villain pushed in response to your $50 "go" on the turn? Could you have folded after putting so much in the pot already? That would look a lot like a set a that point.

Assuming your stack was deep enough that you could have folded to a turn push from villain, I like this line a lot.

[rikz]

Do you really think the cold call on the turn looks more like a set with his numbers? I thought the opposite. I figured he'd end the pot right there with his set by pushing (or at least min-raising) instead of cold calling with a draw on the board, no? But with an overpair or a flush draw with an A he might just call.

[ryanghall]

Very good analysis. This was helpful.

I think I could have folded to a turn allin. This would have screamed set.

My PFR is 4.5, so yes I'm a fairly tight raiser, but not obscenely tight.

Thanks,
Ryan

[Alex/Mugaaz]

His most likely hand is a set. If he doesn't have that he has AA, QQ, JJ, maybe TT.

On the river, with this guys stats, it's a fold. In fact considering his stats I think I'd fold to the flop raise.

Why did you bet the turn? If he's behind he has 2 outs (most likely, I dont see him being an idiot with TP or OESD). A free card doesn't hurt you, and if he takes it you know you're good. Your check might induce him to bet as a bluff too, while you betting results in you losing all your money on the river unless he has QQ/JJ. (Which he most likely doesn't because of his stats.)

[ryanghall]

The reason I bet the turn was to find out exactly what he had.

If you have a set, you're going to push there, right? Of course you are. He has made a big flop raise, I've called in and then I've had the nerve to bet into him on the turn, looking like I'm trying to sucker him into raising. If he's sane, I can't see him pushing anything but a set here.

Ryan

[LottaFagina]

Results?!?

[ryanghall]

He checked behind and showed TT. I like the stop and go here. Sets push and everyone else becomes terrified.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Ryan

[amoeba]

I like play on every street and I would call any bet on the river.