anyone care to talk some Pot Limit Omaha MTT for a second?

[HonchoOverload]

This was brought to mind by the "fold a favorite" post.

I'm not sure how many players here play Pot Limit Omaha as well as hold 'em, but in my opinion there are times when you flop the nuts, but it may be correct to fold. In Omaha, draws can be so much bigger and two or three hands against you cut into your odds so much, that I've always wondered this question....

When you flop the nut straight in Omaha (say, broadway) and there's a flush draw out there, is it correct to fold to an all-in reraise and call if you are certain one of your opponents has a set and the other has the flush draw?

Example:
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1092606
pokenum -o qc qs 2d 7d - ac kc 2h 7h - jc td 9s 8d -- ah kh qd
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Qd Ah Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qc 7d 2d 74 11.11 592 88.89 0 0.00 0.111
Ac Kc 7h 2h 334 50.15 328 49.25 4 0.60 0.505
9s Jc Td 8d 254 38.14 408 61.26 4 0.60 0.384

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1092612
pokenum -o qc qs 2d 7d - qh 3h 4c 4s - jc td 9s 8d -- ah kh qd
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Qd Ah Kh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qc 7d 2d 234 35.14 432 64.86 0 0.00 0.351
4s 4c Qh 3h 216 32.43 450 67.57 0 0.00 0.324
9s Jc Td 8d 216 32.43 450 67.57 0 0.00 0.324

In both of these scenarios you apparently have the worst of it. Say you lead out early in a tourney with the pot, get re-potted twice to put you all in. Since you equity is these types of scenario is even money or worse, it seems as though the correct play is to fold the nuts! What do you guys think?

[BlackAces]

You've constructed these examples rather poorly, I think.

In the first one, you clearly have positive equity -- you're putting in 33% of the money, but you'll win 38% of the time. The nut flush draw takes away most of bottom set's outs by having top two pair, and you also have a backdoor flush draw, making this not nearly the worst scenario you could face.

In the second one, while you may have slightly -EV, it is so slight that the money already in the pot would likely make it +EV.

These examples don't illustrate very well why it's often advisable to fold these situations...what you really worry about is running into a scenario where you have the same nut straight as one other player, but that player and another player both have redraw outs against you. Check this hand out:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1092754
pokenum -o 9s 8h 5c 4d - qc jc 9h 8s - ad kh th ts -- tc 6c 7h
Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Tc 6c 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 5c 4d 8h 0 0.00 519 77.93 147 22.07 0.110
8s Qc Jc 9h 227 34.08 292 43.84 147 22.07 0.451
Ts Ad Kh Th 292 43.84 374 56.16 0 0.00 0.438</pre><hr />

THIS is the scenario that really puts you up against it. You have nut straight with no chance to improve, while your two opponents have redraws to higher straights, flushes and full houses...and if they all miss, you still only get half the pot.

Stave Badger makes a great point in PLO/8 that's really applicable here...if you ask yourself, "What hand do I want to make?" and the answer is, "The same hand that I have now," i.e. blanks on the turn and river, then checking and even check/folding on the flop (especially in the face of heavy betting) are quite prudent.

[HonchoOverload]

Good analysis! I see what you mean about having nearly a +EV with the money in the pot. I simply cannot stand flopping the nut straight in an Omaha or O/8 tourney with no way to improve.