Overcards in an aggressive game (Party 30)

[johnnycakes]

I hate 'em.
I'm running bad (I hope), but I'm starting to think I'd save money if I open folded the flop in situations like this:

Open with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] on button.
SB folds. unremarkable, non-maniac BB calls.
Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB Checks, I Bet, BB Raises, I Call.

Turn: blank.
BB Bets, I fold.

Or worse,
Turn: blank [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB Bets, I Call. Fold worthless river
Net: -3 BB

I'm only going to flop a pair 1/3 of the time, but I'll be played back at on ragged flops > 70% (guess. inflated by my imagination?) time in these aggressive games.

My opponents can't be hitting the flop that often, so what's my play?
Check their WTSD stats and play back if it's low?
Play back if they are aggressive?
Cut my losses and wait until it's my turn to semi-bluff check-raise?

[Fianchetto]

I think occasionally you can 3-bet the flop in a situation like yours.

You probably have 6 outs, plus backdoor straight and flush draws. Plus you might currently have the best hand.

I wouldn't get too carried away with it, but on a relatively safe board like this one I think it can be a good play that let's them know it can get expensive to try to take the pot away from you on a ragged board.

Deciding whether or not to follow up with a turn bet is another issue:

Your options are betting the turn/checking river unimproved, or checking the turn and calling a river bet to pick off a bluff.

Generally, I like betting the turn since you keep your foot on the gas and they may muck a small pair or something with 6 outs against you, plus you charge any draws, and get full value when you hit your outs on one of the last two streets. Getting check raised leaves you a pretty easy fold. The times when I'm more likely to check the turn is when I pick up a gutshot or something like that where I don't want to get checkraised now that I have some more outs, i.e. if the turn in your example was a black queen.

[haakee]

Good post Fianchetto.

The tougher scenario is when you get played back at and are out of position.

[johnnycakes]

Thanks for your comments.

I think you're right and I need to be selectively more aggressive in situations like this.

I just don't like calling and folding. It appears mathematically correct if my opponents actually have something in these situations, but I think I'm probably being bluffed enough that call-fold (if I miss) line needs to be balanced with the semi-bluff re-raise.

The hard part is figuring out which line to use in any particular situation.
I think with lack of a better read, aggresion factors and WTSD% can be a place to start.

[PokerBob]

3-bet those aggressive fucks on the flop, especially if you KNOW they are going to take a stab at you if the flop is all poop.

[flawless_victory]

raise turn
check river
send it.