Thoughts on playing preflop for high pot only...

[Go Blue]

After playing (tens of) thousands of hands of low FIXED limit O8, I'm rethinking the whole strategy of playing high cards preflop. I've been fairly successfull at this game overall, but I'm beginning to think that these hands are costing me money. I'm primarily talking about all cards 10 or higher, excluding trips and quads. I believe I read somewhere that these hands should be played (aggressively?) preflop and it makes sense because if you're trying to scoop the pot, you have a good chance at scooping should the board not contain a low possibility. But I've been realizing how difficult it is to hit flops with these kinds of hands and when you do manage to win something, you're splitting a lot of the time. So...am I doing something wrong here? Perhaps...should I be playing these hands only in position and only when I can raise and somewhat isolate? Or maybe, only play when there's a suited ace at minimum? Thoughts? Thanks.

[kitaristi0]

Generally high only hands do well with many PF limpers, when the flop comes 3 high cards or 2 high and 1 low card. Then all the people limping with A2 and A3 etc have no hand and have to fold, leaving lots of dead money in the pot that you can scoop up.

[Go Blue]

[ QUOTE ]
Generally high only hands do well with many PF limpers, when the flop comes 3 high cards or 2 high and 1 low card. Then all the people limping with A2 and A3 etc have no hand and have to fold, leaving lots of dead money in the pot that you can scoop up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well...obviously I realize that. So is what you're saying is I should ONLY play them into big multiway pots?

[kitaristi0]

HU good high only hands are usually an underdog to any random hand with several low cards, so I guess yes, you should only play these in multiway pots.

E.g. KJQQ will win only 44.6% of the time against 9876 which we realise to be absolute cheese.

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
So is what you're saying is I should ONLY play them into big multiway pots?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes exactly. If you can get in for cheap against a lot of limpers a high only hand can be profitable.

Here are my stats:
4 cards > 10: .05 BB/100
4 cards > 9: .15 BB/100
Overall I am around .09 BB/100 with high only hands.

This may seem counter-intuitive but it when explained it will illustrate another important high only concept: High only hands are much more powerful with flush possibilities. I have been playing any 4 > 10 and only playing select hands with 4 > 9 usually with flush possibilities. It looks like that is making a large difference.

[Go Blue]

Hmmm....that's interesting, I didn't realize these hands are that vulnerable (sp?). True, you can't make a low, but you prolly won't have people calling you down heads up with a 78 low (a hand like 6789 or such). Anyway, I suppose one thing that's also true is if that a lot of people are playing low-oriented hands, most probably won't pay you off on the turn and river when there will be no low possibility.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm primarily talking about all cards 10 or higher, excluding trips and quads. I believe I read somewhere that these hands should be played (aggressively?) preflop

[/ QUOTE ]

Go Blue - Yes. I read that somewhere too. But I think it’s wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
But I've been realizing how difficult it is to hit flops with these kinds of hands and when you do manage to win something, you're splitting a lot of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo!

[ QUOTE ]
So...am I doing something wrong here?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, in my humble opinion, if you're raising before the flop when you should be either trying to see the flop as cheaply as possible or folding.

Your pay-off with high-only hands is when you find a favorable fit with the flop and your opponents don't, but they chase anyway, paying off on the second and third betting rounds (and maybe even paying off on the fourth betting round).

It’s difficult to generalize what a favorable flop is because there are many, many various different situations that arise after the flop, depending on the exact cards in your hand, the exact cards on the flop, your position, and the betting. But in general, when playing Omaha-8 at a typical nine or ten handed low-limit or mid-limit ring game table, you usually will be drawing after the flop and you want to not need more than one card to make the nuts when you are drawing. In addition, in order to have favorable odds for these draws, you need enough outs so that the implied pot odds for your part of the pot will be greater than the odds against catching one of your outs. When all this comes together for you, you have a favorable fit with the flop. Something like that.

It’s true that when you will end up with a winner, by raising before the flop from late position or the blinds you probably collect a double bet from everyone who has already limped on the first betting round - and that’s obviously good when you end up with a winner - but it costs you an extra bet to do so, and your projected win percentage is not great enough great enough to overcome the majority of times when you will miss a favorable fit with the flop.

It’s also true that by raising before the flop from early position you generally increase your chances of winning when you do not quite get a favorable flop, and when nobody else quite gets a favorable flop either. If you have raised before the flop, and thus increased your chances of winning with a not quite favorable flop, I think the general strategy is to bet again, perhaps hoping to bluster your way to success. Sometimes it works. But when you don’t quite get a favorable flop and an opponent does, the tactic is poor. And when you do get a favorable flop, your early preemptive pre-flop raise might have knocked out an opponent who, having put one small bet into the pot, might have chased all the way to the showdown with a less than adequate fit. (That’s a common mistake made by Omaha-8 players, but by raising before the flop and inducing opponents to fold, you protect them from making that mistake).

[ QUOTE ]
Perhaps...should I be playing these hands only in position and only when I can raise and somewhat isolate? Or maybe, only play when there's a suited ace at minimum?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you have to go that far. In my humble opinion you want to see the flop cheaply with most of these hands and encourage others to also see the flop cheaply. And all hands with four cards higher than ten are not the same. Some of these hands are excellent starting hands while others are actually sub-marginal.

In general, at a typical table you ideally want to see the flop when you have a starting hand with all four cards ten or higher for one small bet. In addition, ideally, you want as many potential customers (chasers to the showdown) as possible also seeing the flop.

That’s because when you miss a favorable fit with the flop yourself, the best course of action for you is probably to dump your hand, and you’ll presumably recognize when you don’t have a favorable fit with the flop and you’ll presumably have the discipline to dump the hand - but when your opponents miss a favorable fit with the flop they won’t necessarily dump their hands. This is where you’ll make money with your four-cards-above-ten starting hands at a typical loosish low limit table. You collect by making your opponents pay to see the other two cards when you have a favorable fit with the flop and your opponents don’t, but they pay to see the other two cards anyhow. (And maybe you collect a bonus at the showdown when they get stuck because the pot is too big for them to fold).

But you don’t want to be in the position of playing these four-cards-above-ten starting hands for a double bet on the first betting round, then getting a flop that is not quite favorable, and then getting stuck in the pot yourself.

Sometimes your opponents will not have what I consider to be a favorable flop, but they will catch a favorable card on the turn and then another favorable card on the river but more often, they won’t catch two successive favorable cards, or the miracle card on the river, and then you will collect from them. If you play well, you’ll collect from them more often than you pay them off.

The above is admittedly over-simplistic.

There’s another consideration when you play a hand with a high pair, such as
K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and that is the possibility of catching a flop with a king plus two low cards, such as K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Here 24 unseen cards make low and only 21 unseen cards do not. From your perspective, the odds of low making are 780 to 210, or almost four to one. And someone might easily make a flush or a small straight to beat your flopped set of kings. Finally, even if the board does pair and you make a winning full house or quads, it’s 0.206 to 0.141, or almost 3 to 2 that low will also be possible.

Here’s some of my math, if you're interested:
0.08484848485.......7/45*24/44 low,boat =
0.07070707071.......7/45*20/44 no low,boat =
0.12121212121.......24/45*10/44 low,boat =
0.41212121212.......24/45*34/44 low, no boat =
0.07070707071.......14/45*10/44 no low, boat =
0.14848484848.......14/45*21/44 low, no boat =
0.09191919192.......14/45*13/44 no low, no boat =
1 (checks).......total above

0.08484848485.......7/45*24/44 low,boat =
0.12121212121.......24/45*10/44 low,boat =
0.20606060606.......sub total
0.07070707071.......7/45*20/44 no low,boat =
0.07070707071.......14/45*10/44 no low, boat =
0.14141414142.......sub total

There's more involved than just the possible consideration of low. With a hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you certainly should want to see the flop (and as cheaply and with as many potential chasers as possible) - but then, after a flop of J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], even though you will have flopped a full house, you’ll be in danger city. Why?

The main problem is everyone who holds a jack will stay in the hand to see the next two cards, and you will lose if they improve their set of jacks to any full house. There's also the chance of running into quad jacks, but the odds against that are about twenty to one, making it a monster under the bed you simply have to mostly disregard. You do want chasers who will (foolishly) be drawing to a flush or a straight after a paired flop.

Bottom line: you can play most hands with all four cards ten and higher, but I don’t think you generally should raise before the flop with them. I’ve simulated all the non-suited possibilities, and many of the suited possibilities of hands with all four cards nine and above. The worst of the non-suited hands with ten and above in nine handed simulations is TJKAn and the best is KKAAn. Below are a few values for your perusal. Hopefully you can see clearly that all four-cards-above-ten starting hands are not equal.

# wins in 10000 runs, nine handed no-fold-’em simulations
hand.......high.......low.......scoop.......total
TJKAn.......361.......0.......644.......1005
KKAAn .......507.......0.......922.......1429
KKAAs.......656.......0.......1091.......1747
KKAAd .......794.......0.......1186.......1980
(n means non-suited, s means lowest card only suited to the ace, and d means double suited).
Note to see the flop for one bet with any hand in a nine-handed-no-fold game with no betting allowed after the flop, you’d clearly lose money over the long haul by playing any hand with a total below 1111 wins. (You’d win 8 bets each of the 1111/10000 times you won for a win total of 8888 bets but you’d lose 1 bet each of the 8889/10000 times you lost for a loss total of 8889 bets).

That’s not to imply that you should never play TJKAn because it only has a win total of 1005. For example, if your opponents were eight “whales” who would always see the flop and always continue to the showdown after the flop, you could profitably see the flop with TJKAn. (However, I hasten to add that I’ve never been in a game with eight such whales).

But even with a couple of opponents who would be expected to chase after a flop where they didn’t quite have an adequate fit, I might still see the flop from late position for one small bet with TJKAn. I’m going to play the hand from late position for one small bet even though I fully realize folding is a safer choice and might be a better choice. I’m going to make that recognized mistake simply because it’s more fun for me to see the flop than fold with a sub-marginal, but coordinated starting hand such as TJKAn. And I don’t think I’m going to get hurt much with the hand.

If I do catch the eye-hole (a queen) plus at least one other honor card (T, J, K, or A), or if I do make a set or top two pair I’ll continue to a bet (and may either raise or not, depending) and I’ll probably bet the flop if it’s checked around to me - but otherwise I’ll fold. I think that has me only playing about 4030 out of 17296 possible flops, only about 23.3% - and I’m not guaranteed a win with most of the flops I’ll play, or even the whole pot when I do win. I only have favorable odds to do this (see the flop with TJKAn) when I can see the flop cheaply, and when there are a couple of players in the game who will chase all the way to the river with trash when I have a favorable fit with the flop.

Should you even play (let alone raise) when you hold TJKAn in a typical casino ring game? Unless there are blind defense or table image considerations that outweigh the unfavorable odds, even playing the hand is probably not very wise -and raising before the flop with the hand seems purely stupid. You probably do better to quietly fold the hand, even for a half bet from the small blind.

But I’ll admit that if I expected no raise from the big blind, I’d probably see the flop for a half bet from the small blind. I don’t think that’s necessarily the correct play, but as noted above, it’s more fun for me to see the flop than not, and table image considerations somewhat mitigate the poor odds I might seem to be getting with such a hand (ATJKn). However, I cringe at the thought of completing from the small blind or limping and then getting raised before the flop. (Of course I’d probably call the raise).

In terms of driving most opponents out of the pot so as to get one-on-one with somebody, high only hands without a pair, even if double suited do not simulate well against random hands. High only hands with one pair or two pairs, if double suited, simulate better than random hands, but barely, and do not do as well as hands with one ace plus three random cards. I don’t generally want to play high only hands one-on-one (but I’ll generally defend with most of them if one-on-one).

To summarize, four-cards-above-ten starting hands range from sub-marginal to excellent, but none of them are in the premium starting hands category. The best hands in the four-cards-above-ten starting hands group simulate several notches below premium hands (mostly double suited aces with a wheel card). Should you raise before the flop with four cards ten or higher?

Sometimes - but mostly for intimidation purposes when you do, rather than based on the inherent value of any of these hands. And, if your style is to often raise before the flop with good low starting hands such as A23X, A34X, etc., also to somewhat disguise your pre-flop raises.

Should you raise before the flop with the excellent four-cards-above-ten starting hands?

Again, the answer, in my humble opinion, is sometimes. And again, for the same reasons.

Continuing the summary, sometimes someone makes what seems to be a stupid play and then, as luck will have it, beats the odds - but if your pre-flop raise fails to induce an opponent to fold who would otherwise have taken part of the pot from you, then unless the pre-flop raise sets up a bigger pay-off for you down the line, your pre-flop raise was probably a mistake. And if your pre-flop raise does induce an opponent to fold who otherwise would have missed a fit with the flop, but who, once having contributed one small bet to the pot, would have chased you to the showdown when you flop a favorable fit that turns into the nuts, then your pre-flop raise was a blunder.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[lighterjobs]

even limping with four unsuited cards greater than ten in omaha high is not that great of a hand. read this article by rolf slotboom about good starting hand in pot limit omaha high. even though it says the hands would be different in eight or better, read hand #1 and it will explain to you why these types of hands are not that great. i think hand #1 applies to omaha8.

[Buzz]

Lighterjobs - Good article. Rolf writes good stuff.

JQKAn is clearly sub marginal in Omaha-8, but I'm surprised to see that Rolf considers it not such a good hand in Omaha-high. (I would have thought it fairly decent in Omaha-high despite the lack of flush possibilities. Interesting.

Here are my sims numbers for JQKAn for Omaha-8.
hand......high...low....scoop...total
JQKAn.....352.....0.....745.....1097

That's 10000 times against eight non-folding opponents with random starting hands.

But although JQKA does not simulate very well, that's not to say that I wouldn't see the flop with the hand if there were potential chasers at the table.
• for one small bet from late position,
• for a half small bet from the small blind if I anticipated no raise from the big blind, or
• probably for a single raise from the big blind.

But, no, JQKAn doesn't seem like a very good starting hand to me. It looks good, but, in my humble opinion, it really isn't. (The argument that you can easily get away from the hand if you miss a good fit with the flop doesn't wash because you can do that with any hand).

The hand is nice if you flop a good fit, because you'll usually have multiple draws or a straight with a redraw to a full house - but it simply doesn't fit well with the flop often enough - and even when it does you're not necessarily guaranteed a win or the whole pot if you do win. You probably don't get quartered quite as much when you make a high straight as you do with ace-deuce for low, but you certainly do get quartered a lot when you make a high straight, because your opponents will be seeing the flop with high cards too.

Buzz

[lighterjobs]

[ QUOTE ]
But, no, JQKAn doesn't seem like a very good starting hand to me. It looks good, but, in my humble opinion, it really isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

when i first started understanding plo high, AKQJn etc hands never looked good to me. i would usually see around 75% of flops (this was b&m play so i don't have actual stats) so i would always like to flop big wraps and backdoor flush draws. i have flopped a lot of broadway straights that i couldn't protect which have cost me a lot of money, so i guess i learned the hard way that these hands aren't any fun. but omaha high is a different story.

but, yes, i definately agree with you on protecting my blinds without cold calling and calling a bet from late position with this type of hand, but it seems to be pointless to play it from any other position.