Edge

[mrbaseball]

I see some edge here today on Pittsburgh +195. Wood a -210 favorite? I don't see it. This guy gets another way overated line. He's a losing pitcher on a .500 team with a penchant for throwing 120 pitches by the fifth inning. Fogg has been solid his last few starts and is arguably having a better year than Wood with a 4.30 ERA to Wood's 4.80.

Everybody remembers a young pre-surgery, pre-constant DL visitor, fireballer striking out 20 Astros as a rookie. They don't realize he has become a headcase with awful mechanics who blows up when the game is on the line. As a result he ALWAYS gets overbet to lines (like this one!) he cannot possibly be profitable against. He will have some extremely dominant performances. Maybe even today? I'm not betting on it though! There is too good of a chance that he doesn't and at this price we have a profitable opportunity on the other side. Fading overated names is a big part of profitable baseball betting.

I like this runline a whole lot too and will split my action between the runline and straight.

[whipsaw]

Some mrbaseball angst coming out in that last post. One would almost guess that you were upset that the lines are skewed--I'm sure not.

Wood just isn't that good-not after a bazillion trips to the DL. I definitely like the line on PIT today, despite the offensive numbers the Cubs have put up the last few games. Although his team has not, Fogg has been good on the road, with a 3-2 record. He really hasn't been blown out in a long time, although he regularly gives up 3-4 runs. I see the correct line here something like +140/-140. 190 is just ridiculous for a pitcher who's been on the DL recently.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
Some mrbaseball angst coming out

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I have a deep seated loathing for Wood. I do like the fact that he is a bum though and is typically easy money as a go against (you're +3.25 units if you bet against him each of his 8 starts this season). Much of it has to do with local media here in Chicago. You see I am a lowly White Sox fan and Wood is a dreaded Cub. Media here in town is grossly pro-Cub and ridiculously pro-Wood although finally the Sox are getting some deserved ink with their performance this season.

It just bugs me that this clown gets all sorts of SI covers and laudation that is totally undeserved since he's a guy who typically wins 10 or 12 games a year.

[whipsaw]

I hear ya... I grew up in Iowa, and everyone was a Cubs fan it seemed, regardless of the fact that there were better teams just as close (Royals in 80s, Twins in 90s, and Cards 2000+).

Now I'm in D.C. and a Nats fan and stealing all the pub from the Orioles... hehe.

Back to the original topic, every single one of those Cubs starters gets overbet like crazy. Maddux gets lines now as if he was still on his streak of Cy Youngs. What if Wood played for the Brewers or Rangers--would any of us have even heard of him? Fade the Yanks, fade Wood. Fade the general public.

[mrbaseball]

Cubs are "national darlings". They have a huge national following stemming from the early days of nationwide coverage on superstation WGN. Now not that many Cubs game are on WGN though ans they carry just as many Sox games. Plus they are the "lovable losers", everybodies underdog.

Last year as they collapsed down the stretch losing something like 9 out of their last 10 to finish one game out of the wildcard the lines on them were ludicrous. The books fear the Cubs in the playoffs because so much casual money is on them every year. Especially last year after the 03 chokathon. The books rewarded us down the stretch with the fattest lines imaginable because all they wanted was the Cubs not to be a playoff factor. The last two weeks of the season were pure edge that came in every day [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[whipsaw]

6-1 cubs in the 3rd inning, not good [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[mrbaseball]

Can't win 'em all. 11-1 now? All you can do is identify edge (hopefully correctly!) and let the chips fall as they may. I'm quite confident that Pittsburgh was the correct play here despite the lopsided result.

[hobbes9324]

Reality check, guys.....IT'S PITTSBURG.....dogcrap at a bargain price is still dogcrap - I took the over, and was home in 6.

[mrbaseball]

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IT'S PITTSBURG

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How often does Pittsburgh win? Coming into this game it looks like about 44% of the time so far meaning they only lose 56% of the time. Kinda what we call a coinflip in poker.

But I don't think anyone thought Pitt shoulda been favored. Just maybe not such a large dog with a fairly hot pitcher going for them and the overated Wood and his losing record and high ERA.

Do you know what -200 means? Do you know how often guys with 4.80 era's beat guys with 4.30 era's? Do you know the Cubs record when Wood starts and is it significantly better than Pitts when Fogg starts?

Obviously it didn't work out but value is value and writing off a team that wins 44% of the time as a guaranteed loss tells me you know very very little about baseball.

[hobbes9324]

Whew, little touchy there, ain't we.

Yeah, I admit I was being a jerk. A couple of starts prior for Wood, I basically said that anyone who laid a big price on him was out of their minds - I think he is about the most overrated pitcher from a price point of view in baseball.

Having said that, the Cubs are on a bit of a roll (Won last 5 - of course, they'll fade in August), and the Pirates are starting to stagger (lost last 3, and closing in on Cincinnati for last) - I don't like to take a team on a losing run against a team on a winning steak, as a rule.
Pittsburg's foul road record is about a match for the Cubs lousy home record, so that's a push.

Not in a million years would I lay the price - and I've always had a feeling that Fogg might be a sucessful pitcher, if he could get off that crappy team. And if you put a gun to my head and made me be, I'd take Pitt. But I wouldn't be happy about it.

So I'll apologize again for being a wiseass - and mention that before I made the questionable decision of going to med school, I worked in a sportsbook in Reno.....so I know about those -2.00 thingies.....

BTW - I was surprised that the total was 7 flat......was the wind blowing out?