a quick one

The Goober · #1 07-15-2005, 07:26 AM

Live 8-16, 9 handed.

SB is a pretty good player, but isn't as good as he thinks he is. He tends to be overagressive post-flop and a little too loose PF. BB and button are mostly unknown but seem pretty typical.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 fold, Hero calls, 3 folds, button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises, button folds, SB calls, BB calls

Turn: (3.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (3.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero...

housenuts · #2 07-15-2005, 07:33 AM

i think i bet the turn. you got 2 overs and a flush draw. maybe i'm wrong. but you almost gotta fold that river with BB calling there.

crunchy1 · #3 07-15-2005, 07:38 AM

On the river, I think combining the pot size with the fact that your overcalling makes this a pretty easy fold.

sy_or_bust · #4 07-15-2005, 08:12 AM

Ugh...fold. Calling is hopeless and your odds suck.

The Goober · #5 07-15-2005, 03:52 PM

thanks for the input. I did, in fact, fold.

And of course SB says "I got nothing" and BB takes it down with a J-high diamond flush.

In retrospect, I could come up with a few ways to justify a call. In particular, SB was agressive enough that he probably would have 3-bet the flop if he had a real piece of this board (although I dunno what he was cold-calling with), and he was definately agressive enough to take a shot at it on the river with virtually anything. BB might have raised if he had a boat, since he should know that I don't have one and likely wouldn't overcall (and lots of SS think that any boat is a huge hand, despite the board). So, BB's call here could easily have been A-high.

But this is results-oriented thinking for sure. Everything has to be just right to call here, and getting 5:1 probably just isn't enough.

einbert · #6 07-15-2005, 03:59 PM

I think the river decision is a lot closer than everyone else is letting on. It's entirely possible that either
SB is bluffing and BB has a flush
SB and BB both have smaller flushes (yeah this one is kind of out there but it will happen some % of the time)
SB is bluffing and BB thinks he is bluffing and is calling with a hand like AK
SB has a straight and BB is calling with a hand like AK
SB and BB both have straights
SB is betting AK for value and BB has a straight

All these possibilities are fairly remote, but there are a lot of them and they add up.
If he has a tendency to never slowplay (ala 2p2) then I believe a fold is probably correct.

wheeler · #7 07-15-2005, 04:46 PM

For what it's worth, I think this is a good fold. Yes there's some chance that SB was bluffing, BB has a smaller flush etc. but not enough to justify a call, given the size of the pot.