Do you like this push?

Mackerel · #1 07-14-2005, 11:18 PM

Villian in this hand is loose passive (29/1 over about 100 hands). I know his raise isn't a draw. What do you think?

Paradise Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) converter

UTG ($48.75)
UTG+1 ($56.25)
MP1 ($50.00)
MP2 ($37.25)
CO ($101.00)
Button ($43.70)
SB ($21.00)
Hero ($47.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP1 posts a blind of $0.50. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP1 (poster) checks, MP2 raises to $1, CO calls $1, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.50, UTG calls $0.50, MP1 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $5, UTG raises to $18, MP2 folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $46.25 (All-In). Results later.

orange · #2 07-14-2005, 11:28 PM

nice hand.

kongo_totte · #3 07-14-2005, 11:30 PM

Only way to play it.

ajmargarine · #4 07-14-2005, 11:53 PM

I'm not taking this line very often in my game right now. Maybe some folks have some insight as to why I should be doing it more. Punching villians likely holdings into a simulator, I get these numbers for Hero in this hand:

vs. set = 59.7-40.3 underdog
vs. overpair with spade = 51.5-48.5 favorite
vs. overpair without spade = 56-43 favorite
vs. A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 = 51.6-48.4 favorite
vs. 2 pair = 52-48 underdog

kongo_totte · #5 07-14-2005, 11:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not taking this line very often in my game right now. Maybe some folks have some insight as to why I should be doing it more. Punching villians likely holdings into a simulator, I get these numbers for Hero in this hand:

vs. set = 59.7-40.3 underdog
vs. overpair with spade = 51.5-48.5 favorite
vs. overpair without spade = 56-43 favorite
vs. A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10 = 51.6-48.4 favorite
vs. 2 pair = 52-48 underdog

[/ QUOTE ]

And add folding equity to that and it's a very +EV play.

srm80 · #6 07-15-2005, 01:11 AM

off topic...but simulators? how do you figure villians likely holdings if you aren't the one playing against the person?

ajmargarine · #7 07-15-2005, 01:21 AM

[ QUOTE ]
off topic...but simulators? how do you figure villians likely holdings if you aren't the one playing against the person?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just figured out what hands villian would maybe call an all-in with and put them in a simulator one by one with this flop and hero's hand. He's probably not going to call an all-in with anything else. (Maybe 2 spades is a slight possibility, missed that)

Alex/Mugaaz · #8 07-15-2005, 01:25 AM

You lost to a set.

Mackerel · #9 07-15-2005, 09:57 AM

Bump. C'mon...nobody else has any comments? I've got a friend who says I should've just folded to the raise, but I think that's weak. Anybody take a different line?

just2ska · #10 07-15-2005, 10:29 AM

I like the push man, nice work.