coming up with accurate number regarding judgement

[Mikey]

Lets say I think my opponnent will fold 10% of the time if I raise or he'll fold 15% of the time if I raise or 20% of the time if I raise, how can I come up with a number like this accurately??

Can anyone give me an example of how they come gauge whether or not if they raise, there opp will fold X % of the time or not?? How can I get real close to this number?

[brick]

ya ever watch the price is right.
The clock game.
http://www.cbs.com/daytime/price/games/clock_game.shtml

10% too low.
20% too high.
15% too low
17.5% too high
16% bingo.

Edit: This still comes down to gut feel. But I think gut feel may be the most accurate method.

[AaronBrown]

I don't think about it this way because the probability is not a constant. If all you cared about was one hand, only the probability would matter. But to win on the session, you want to control your opponents, not analyze them.

Whether or not your opponent calls depends on his cards and his opinion of your cards. You can compute the probability of his holding various cards, of course you have to adjust that for his play. If there are three spades on the board in Hold'em, there is 1 chance in 24 that two randomly dealt cards from the rest of the deck will be spades. However, with nine opponents there is about 1 chance in 3 that one of them had two spades. However, most of those two spade hands would have been folded pre-flop, depending on the table and the betting. So you can form some kind of an opinion, maybe 15%, that he has a flush and will not fold.

But you can't use statistics for what he thinks you have. Every time he folds and you take in a pot without showing your hand, everyone at the table becomes more likely to call you the next time. Every time he raises and you fold, or show a weak hand at showdown, they become even more likely to call or raise you. Everytime you win a showdown with a strong hand, they're less likely to call or raise.

The trick is to get in the right rythym, where you're always one beat ahead of the table. They call your good hands, show you more respect, so you play some weaker hands or bluff. You switch back just before they decide to start calling you again.

Your problem is less about what is the probability of getting called, but whether you're on the upswing or downswing of table respect.