5/T Missed value bet?

wowacedude · #1 07-14-2005, 03:20 PM

Villian here is a LP-P, calling station or what you want to call it.
I have been winning ALOT on this table, specially against this guy. I've been ISO raising him alot, and he has been treating me nice almost A,LWAYS peeling on the flop and then letting it go on the turn.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets, SB calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls.

River: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero?

Final Pot: 6 BB

When im looking at it now i am angry at myself, i let god kill a kitten.
My thinking at the time was, i won't get any more bets out of a missed flushdraw, he would have dropped ace high or some kiddy pair on the turn.
I don't like it, but what do you guys think?

Sorry about my english.

MrStretchie · #2 07-14-2005, 03:28 PM

I think it's a good check behind. You said he's folding the turn unless he's caught something. He didn't fold the turn, so he's either on a draw or caught a pair. If he caught a pair it's at least 50% going to be higher than yours, and if he's on the draw he's going to fold if he missed and maybe raise if he hit. (straight or paired a jack w/ jq)
Oh, and the only thing that got me about the english was "a lot", not "alot". Sorry, that's a pet peve of mine. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Guy McSucker · #3 07-14-2005, 05:17 PM

Grit your teeth and value bet.

Sure, he outflopped you, outturned you or outrivered you quite often, but you will be surprised what people will call you with here. Any pocket pair (and I'm betting he doesn't have one >8s), any 5, any 4, a lot of A-highs too.

And what is supposed to be wrong with your English? Seems fine to me.

Guy.

Lmn55d · #4 07-14-2005, 05:22 PM

bet, any pair and often ace high calls. Also, a weaker pair is more likely because he just check/called whole way.

MrStretchie · #5 07-14-2005, 05:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
bet, any pair and often ace high calls. Also, a weaker pair is more likely because he just check/called whole way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or because he's a passive player who folds the turn if he doesn't have a pair. If other guy's only options are call or fold, then Maybe bet here.. But there's also the possibility of a raise that you can't call..

Lmn55d · #6 07-14-2005, 05:51 PM

passive doesn't mean "folds turn without a pair." Most passive players are also loose and make river calls with any pair as well as Ax. Also, if he raises its an easy fold b/c he's passive, but it happens so infrequently (remember he's passive) that it shouldn't affect your river decision

GetThere1Time · #7 07-14-2005, 06:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villian here is a LP-P, calling station or what you want to call it.
I have been winning ALOT on this table, specially against this guy. I've been ISO raising him alot, and he has been treating me nice almost A,LWAYS peeling on the flop and then letting it go on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is even more of a reason to value bet this river besides what the other posters have mentioned. This guy is probably a little fed up and is even more likely to look you up with anything resembling a hand here. Gotta value bet these guys to death no matter what.

MrStretchie · #8 07-14-2005, 06:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
passive doesn't mean "folds turn without a pair." Most passive players are also loose and make river calls with any pair as well as Ax. Also, if he raises its an easy fold b/c he's passive, but it happens so infrequently (remember he's passive) that it shouldn't affect your river decision

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I know. But the other part of the read was that he generally peels on the flop and folds the turn. The fact that he didn't fold the turn implies that he caught.
Assuming he caught, he could have a pair of: 4's, 5's, t's, or j's. He could also have a flush or straight draw.

You can beat a flush draw, 4's or 5's. A straight draw either caught or caught a pair. Also, a flush draw will very likely fold. True, I suppose he could also have A high.

If you include ace high, you can beat about half of what he might have, but he's folding some of that. I just don't see much value here.. Maybe there is some, but if so it's very thin. And I don't like having to fold to a river raise - do you know this guy wouldn't bluff?

Lmn55d · #9 07-14-2005, 06:23 PM

Even passive players sometimes donkbet or checkraise top pair (T or on the turn with a J). The fact that he didn't discounts these holdings some. If you include this discount, and all Ax holdings there's more worse hands that call than better. He's not folding a pair here.

mperich · #10 07-14-2005, 06:55 PM

I value bet this 100% of the time, especially 4 handed and especially against this guy. You have position for a reason, use it.

-Mike