Top two against apparent tight preflop raiser

avisco01 · #1 07-13-2005, 03:12 PM

UTG has so far VP$IP 3% of the time, raising each time, through about 25 or so hands, winning without showdown. Don't have a great read on him, but thinking there's a reasonable chance he's a good player. Is there any way I could have gotten away from this? I seriously thought I was beat the entire time, but still played aggressively for the most part. Is there any other way I could have played this hand?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) http://216.119.70.224/converter/hhconverter.pl

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, Button calls, 2 folds, UTG caps, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, Button folds, UTG 3-bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, UTG calls.

River: (13.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 13.75 BB

W. Deranged · #2 07-13-2005, 03:21 PM

I think your line is not bad, but I think there is a slightly better way to play the hand which probably minimizes your losses a little better when ahead:

Cap the flop with the plan of folding to a turn lead or a turn check-raise.

If you cap the flop and your opponent leads back or check-raises, I think it's pretty clear you are no better than chopping here (leading back AQ or KQ would seem very unlikely, and I doubt most would lead back/check-raise AK). That extra small bet on the flop will make the turn decision much easier, and allow you to get to the river more cheaply.

The problem with your line is that raising the turn requires 2 BB; you still should probably fold to a three-bet on the turn, but you needed to invest 2 BB instead of .5-1.5 BB to get that info. The one advantage of your line is that it may be very slightly more likely to encourage another AK to fold, and may get slightly more on average from AQ or KQ if those hands stick around. I don't think these benefits make up from the fairly substantial informational benefit of the flop cap, though.

I think the Q is a pretty terrible river card which puts one obvious possible hand you were beating (AQ) out of the question. I don't think you can bet the river.

crunchy1 · #3 07-13-2005, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think the Q is a pretty terrible river card which puts one obvious possible hand you were beating (QQ) out of the question.

[/ QUOTE ]
There's no point in this hand at which Hero was beating QQ.

W. Deranged · #4 07-13-2005, 03:42 PM

Typo. Thanks for pointing it out. I meant AQ. I corrected it in my post above.

avisco01 · #5 07-13-2005, 03:40 PM

"I think the Q is a pretty terrible river card which puts one obvious possible hand you were beating (QQ) out of the question. I don't think you can bet the river."

Agreed, but I wasn't beating QQ. I was worried about QQ, KK, AA obviously throughout the entire hand. I guess my basic question was is there any way I can get away from this hand? Was it completely stupid to raise the turn in this spot? Should I have just went for a cheap showdown? Lately I've been trying to not "play scared" or "tight-weak" so I've been calling down less and raising more, and its lead me to over-playing hands at times. Just figured I'd get some input to see if this was one of those times I was over-playing my hand.

shant · #6 07-13-2005, 03:46 PM

Calling down would not be "scared" or "weak" after he caps and you put him on a range of hands and this is the flop.

shant · #7 07-13-2005, 03:22 PM

I see no reason to raise the turn. I think I might've called this one down, betting if checked to, possibly raising the river (not that one).

avisco01 · #8 07-13-2005, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I see no reason to raise the turn. I think I might've called this one down, betting if checked to, possibly raising the river (not that one).

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I gained nothing by raising the turn since had I just called the turn UTG bets the river most likely and I have to call anyway. Thus, it cost me 2 BB to see a showdown either way. Also, UTG could 3-bet the turn, and cost me even more to see a showdown. With top two pair is it possible to fold to a turn 3-bet or is the pot too big to not show it down? Like I said, I was fairly sure I was beat the entire time, but figured my hand was too strong not to play aggressively, even though I sensed I was against a monster.

mute · #9 07-13-2005, 05:39 PM

Maybe I'm weak, but I'm not raising this at any point postflop. Though it is difficult to be to sure about his pfr% after only 25 hands, then you are likely only ahead of JJ or maybe TT here. Dragging button along in case it's a split pot would be nice too.

SmileyEH · #10 07-13-2005, 06:22 PM

I just call this all the way down. It could be a statistical anomoly but a 3%vpiper is going to have you crushed most of the time on this flop.

-SmileyEH