A-Q Suited At Pokerroom with Royal Flush Bonus

[lozen]

Early player calls and on button Raise with a-qs. Lone guy calls.
Flop is Ks-Js- 2h
First player checks and i bet he folds. With a Royal Flush paying 100 x the Big Bling $500 I feel I screwed up by betting and should have checked the flop and turn looking for the ten and the royal.

Thoughts

[PhantomeX]

Let me get this straight, the HOUSE pays you 100 times the big blind if you hit a royal flush in a cash game?

Man oh Man do I wish Pokerstars did this. I have hit royals there a couple of times including once on the flop.

In answer to your question however, lets look at it this way.
If you checked it down you have 1 out to the royal, 8 to the nut flush, 3 to the nut straight, 3 outs to top pair, and 3 outs to second pair (which since he didn't bet the king probably is a winning hand anyway). What's the danger in checking down? he hit's a pair with whatever he is holding and you don't hit anything that can beat him (6 outs if he isn't playing a paired set (which ironically would actually be the top hand atm)). He hit's trips (holding a pocket pair 2 outs, holding anything else very unlikely), He hits 2 running hearts (and is holding two hearts), (he is holding 10 x, A 10 or Q 10 and hits his straight while you don't (very unlikely again). He is holding pocket 10's and hits a 10(not the 10s obviously and another card on board pairs and you get taken to the cleaners when his full house beats your royal straight, again very unlikely)

From the texture of that flop I would say you're best bet would be to check and take the free card, only a 2% chance to hit the royal on each of the two remaining cards but VERY little chance of him drawing a hand to beat yours of course if he has a pair and your check shows him weakness he might just beat ya anyway. I count 18 outs to a nearly guaranteed winner and at most 6 outs for him to have you beat. The "smart" move here I would think is to take your free card, possibly inducing him to bet on 4th street even if you do happen to hit something that beats him. In fact even if he doesn't bet 4th street I'd still check it down, the simple fact is you have invested 2xBB and so has he, if he has you beat at the moment you should OBVIOUSLY want the freecard to draw on 18 outs to beat him(rather than giving him the opportunity to check raise you if he is actually holding something like 2 kings, if he has nothing that can beat you at the moment then you're betting into him makes his decision to fold pretty easy. That flop looks Mighty dangerous to me if I am not holding AA, KK, AK, KJ, or possibly 10, 9 in spades (which would also be very ironic here).
Regardless of the 100xBB payout for the royal I would have taken the free card both in hopes of hitting something and in hopes of him hitting the second best hand [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] With the 100xBB for royal it's a real no brainer.

PX

[oneeye13]

[ QUOTE ]
should have checked the flop

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no [censored]

[mmmmmbrother]

just use your pattern mapper