likely split pot raising war with donk inbetween

madscout · #1 07-10-2005, 05:04 PM

I figured I was most likely tied with villain (27/10/1.7, 300 hands) but possibly behind. I bet / called villain's raise on the turn and river intending to trap the donk inbetween for 2 bets but never face him with 2-cold. Does this strategy seem to balance for the times we are tied with villain and the times I'm behind? Should I have let it fly and 3-bet on the river?

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, MP2 (poster) 3-bets, MP3 caps, 4 folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (21.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, MP3 3-bets, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Turn: (15.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (21.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls, MP3 raises, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 27.25 BB

Nick C · #2 07-10-2005, 06:32 PM

With a pot as big as the one on the flop by the time the action gets back to you, you don't need to worry about trapping. For instance, if MP2 showed you 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], you wouldn't want to let him stay in for just one more bet, and you wouldn't be heartbroken if he folded to your cap.

But he could easily have more than two outs. I'm not convinced you're ahead, actually, but I say go ahead and cap.

On the turn, I think I like going ahead and 3-betting.

At some point you need to start worrying about the two available combos of AA/KK (AK is only 4 combos and perhaps should be discounted somewhat because of the preflop cap), and you're basically giving 2:1 on every bet you put in, since it does seem like you aren't doing better than chopping even if your hand holds up.

Hmm. Actually, I think the reason to 3-bet the turn isn't so much for value as it is to try one more time to get MP2 to drop his JJ or whatever it is he has. And maybe going for a checkraise is a better way to go about it.

Edit: If you knew MP2 had just two outs, trapping would begin to make a little more sense on the turn, though. And since just a gutshot doesn't really seem especially likely, MP2 does probably have 0-2 outs or many more (with a flush draw).

On the river, I'm fine with just check-calling, actually.

Nick C · #3 07-10-2005, 07:16 PM

Here are some reasonable preflop capping, flop 3-betting hands for MP3. On the flop:

AA = 3 combos
AK = 6 combos
KK = 1 combo

On the turn:

AA = 1 combo
KK = 1 combo
AK = 4 combos

This isn't too discouraging, except that when it is AK, you're just chopping (if your hand holds up). Also, I think the preflop cap should add at least a little weight to the AA/KK combos, beyond their numbers.

A hand like A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] isn't entirely out of the question, but then neither is 99.

Hand protection is also an issue, which is part of the reason I think I like a flop cap (to face MP2 with two more cold and the fear of getting trapped in a raising war). However, if you call instead, you can at least find out if MP2 wants to cap.

Difficult hand. I'm not sure what's best, really.

If I did cap the flop, I think I'd lead the turn and then start calling down after that.

madscout · #4 07-11-2005, 08:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand protection is also an issue, which is part of the reason I think I like a flop cap (to face MP2 with two more cold and the fear of getting trapped in a raising war).

[/ QUOTE ]

I honestly hadn't even thought about hand protection because I figured I was at best splitting with the aggresive villain.

If I reraise the villain and lose the donk, then my EV is definitely < 0 for the rest of the hand. If I keep donk in and milk him for two bets each round I think it should be slightly + EV (I didn't do the math yet).

On the other hand, this pot is getting LARGE and if the donk is on a flush draw that hits this is disastrously -EV. All in all, I thought this hand was very interesting, but probably not that big of an impact on overall winrate becuase it comes up so infrequently.

~mad