2/4 turned draw vs donk bet

soweak. · #1 07-10-2005, 04:33 PM

UTG+1 is 40/7.5/.85. MP2 is superdonk 58/0/1.5. MP2 definetly has a "any pair, any draw" bet mentality.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero ???

Nick C · #2 07-10-2005, 04:52 PM

Reads would help, but I'm thinking that an unknown MP2 will usually have at least top pair or a pair and a gutshot and won't fold. So I'd probably just call.

A fastplayed QT will 3-bet, most likely, but I'd kind of expect Villain to go for a flop checkraise with that.

Anyway, you don't need a whole lot of potential to fold MP2 here, especially if there's not a lot of danger of a 3-bet, in order to make a semibluff raise a worthwhile play. But I don't know that you have enough fold equity, and if Villain might 3-bet with a two-pair hand like KJ or J9, then that's another problem.

Edit: Oh, wait. For some reason I thought the pot was heads-up on the turn. All right, let me rethink this for a second . . .

soweak. · #3 07-10-2005, 04:57 PM

Doh, forgot to include it. Silly preview/post button [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Delta00 · #4 07-10-2005, 05:06 PM

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm not digging the call on the flop. Especially because your call doesn't even close the betting, and you have the possibility of facing a check-raise. The board the flops seems to fit the profile for hands that limp, then call a raiser (K-9, J-9, J-10, Q-10, K-J, K-Q, A-9, A-J). Most of these hands are cutting out your outs. The queen is NOT an out, becuase it makes MANY straights, two-pairs, and a king could easily be paired, you are hoping there isn't a made straight, and you are chasing a back door, an ace that might not be good (making someone two pair), and a 1 card straight draw.

soweak. · #5 07-10-2005, 05:34 PM

Here is why I believe my call on the flop is correct.

Even if we conclude that my Aces and Queens are dead out against a player who play ~60% of the hands he is dealt and we play for nut straight/flush draws (Which I will conclude is 5-6 outs) I am still getting 8.5:1 on a 6.7:1 draw, plus I have implied odds if I hit against one card draws (Qx) I will get paid off big time. I am 99% confident that if I hit a Ten or my backdoor draw I'm not splitting.

Raising is just spewing here because I cannot protect my hand from loose one card draws or from hands that have me crushed (like two pair or a set). Raising will also not likely get me a free card against an aggressive player like MP2. I don't need to know where MP2 is in the hand, because I don't care. I can tell you right now if that diamond doesn't hit the turn or I don't fill my straight that I dump on the turn to any bet (however hitting an A or Q on the turn may change my actions, depending on whether it's heads up or 3 handed). My goal on the flop is to see the turn cheaply and re-evaluate.

I do not believe folding here is an option.

Nick C · #6 07-10-2005, 05:35 PM

I misread the hand at first (I thought it was heads-up on the turn). The presence of the third player changes things in a few ways (as do the reads).

If MP2 will bet any draw, then I guess there is some chance you currently have him beat. But I'd expect him to have at least a pair and a gutshot usually. Still, since he's a 58 VP$IP guy, who knows?

Getting heads-up could potentially buy a couple of outs for your queens or aces even if you're currently behind, so there's that potential benefit too.

If you get cold-called and then called, well, that's not so bad, since you have 12 solid outs and some murkier potential pair outs.

If UTG+1 folds and then MP2 3-bets, on the other hand, well, that's not so good.

I'd probably just call, but raising does have its potential benefits, especially if there's enough chance a raise can lead to your winning the pot heads-up versus MP2 without improving when you check behind on a river blank and beat his QXs.

McGahee · #7 07-10-2005, 05:48 PM

This looks like an easy call dude.
I don't really see why you'd want UTG+1 to fold unless he has you reverse-dominated (he'll pay off your gutshot if he has a Q), and you have very little folding equity over MP2 if you raise.

TomBrooks · #8 07-11-2005, 03:01 AM

I'd rather just call this and hope UTG comes along. Your mainly hoping to make the flush or the straight. I don't know how good your ace outs would be or if you can buy any outs by folding UTG. Your straight and flush draw equity alone is not high enough to make a raise for value unless you got three callers.

Brunger · #9 07-11-2005, 03:12 AM

I am raising the flop against this guy. If I called on the flop I am raising the turn to buy some outs and take a free showdown.

ceyoung · #10 07-11-2005, 03:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I am raising the flop against this guy. If I called on the flop I am raising the turn to buy some outs and take a free showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

there aren't any outs to buy. the Q is dubious because of the king. and if you hit a T or a diamond you are winning the pot 99.9% of the time.