ME bustout hand -- interesting story

[Scooterdoo]

I put a version of this in the wrong forum yesterday about 20 minutes after it happened. I was a bit shell-shocked and had a few details wrong. Now that I have had 24 hours to think about it I'll post it correctly in the correct forum. Any thoughts and discusion will be welcome.

Second level (50/100). I've been going up and down, about 2k here and there since the tournament started. I'm at 8-9k and see 99 from MP and raise to 300. The BB raises me 1300. He's been playing lots of hands. I think for quite a while and am leaning toward folding, but there is just too good a chance that he has AK or AQ. It doesn't seem like he really wants a call. I finally decide that there is just too good a chance that I have the best hand right now so I decide to call (probably the biggest mistake I made in the hand, however, the flop decision was a close second).

The flop comes JJ rag. The BB takes his time and is clearly shaking. I'm pretty sure he either has a big hand like AA/KK or more likely hit the flop. He goes to drink his coffee as he ponders the play and has to put it down because he can't hold it. Hmmm. He throws in 500. I'm sure he has something good and I even say to him that I notice him shaking and he probably really likes his hand. No comment. I figure I'm behind, but it's just 500 more into a 3k pot so I don't feel I can stop now. This was a big mistake in retrospect. I read him great as you'll see but now that I read him I need to act on it. What could he have that I can reasonably beat given the preflop raise? The only preflop hand I could put him on that I'm ahead is AK/AQ. If he has that why bet 500. He either checks or makes a bigger continuation bet. Even if he made a really loose raise with 88 or 77 preflop, why bet just 500 now. I have to fold here, forget the great pot odds and the huge implied odds if I hit my full house. Thoughts?

The turn of course is my miracle card -- the 9. I have to put him on AJ or JJ or AA/KK, but if he has JJ, so be it. He now checks. I think of betting, but I really want all his chips now so decide if I check it's likely I can raise on the river when he bets which I'm pretty sure he'll do if I check now.

The river is a low rag. He quickly bets 5k. Again, I just can't fold assuming he has JJ, so I put the rest of my chips in, about 7k. He turns over JJ for quads!
should I have just called here? Any way to fold? It just didn't dawn on me that he realistically had JJ, but again, if I really thought it through JJ made a lot of sense given the preflop action and what he did on the flop. Even with such great info and the read on the flop, can you really be scared of quads?

Now the fun starts -- yes, it's not over. The dealer starts to give back my 2k more as the guy is taking in the pot and I say wait a second. I pushed all my chips in and he didn't call me. He just turned over his cards -- are you guys following this?

The floor woman comes over and rules that when he turned over his cards and showed his hand his intention was clearly to call. But I said he never said call or even acknowledged my raise. Hey, I wasn't being a dick about it. I realize I was beat, but I just wanted a fair ruling. She rules that he gets all my chips, which I guess was the right thing to do. The funny thing was that I still would have had 2k left if I didn't say anything. Oh, well. She did say that if he had just a mediocre hand and I was bluffing so he had me beat, she would have possibly ruled that I win the pot since he could have reasonably folded to my re-raise. But here there was no way he would fold here. I also could have argued that I should get back my 2k since I never said all-in (I just pushed my chips) and the dealer never acknoweldged it. However, I really had no strength to argue and be a poor sport at the time.

Thoughts would be appreciated.

[The Don]

There is no way to get away from this hand. I have never in my life folded suspecting someone else had quads and I am almost positive this is +EV in the long run, regarless of how good the players are who you are up against. I would definitely put him on AA/KK there.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
There is no way to get away from this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure there is. When he makes a giant reraise PF and then underbets the flop, you can fold it. Hell, I think I fold twice.

Once you see the turn, well, you've got a nice story to tell for the next year or so. Good job being a good sport about it, too.

[Scooterdoo]

I agree. He basically gave me a huge lifeline by betting 500 on the flop. I should have ran! A better player would have mucked his cards and arrogantly said nice Quads!

Forget the 6-1 pot odds and the implied odds. There is just no reason to stick around here. He should have checked to let me get back into the hand. He almost screwed up the hand by betting anything.

My glaring weakness is taking my know-how, which I think is fairly solid to the table. When reading posts and thinking about hands I'm really good. When making decisions at the table I often screw up as I did here. There a fine line between the two and I haven't mastered it yet. Still trying though. The Legends is coming to town next month and I'll give it a few more tries!

[Matador225]

Yes I completely agree. Once you hit the 9 on the turn you couldn't get away from the hand, but you easily could of (and should of IMO) before the flop or after it. Your reasoning that it was only 500 more to call after the flop was flawed because of your read on your opponent, which should come before pot odds in a situation like this. Thats just my opinion anyway.

Good luck next year,
Jack

[SossMan]

fold preflop. you don't have enough chips to hit your set, and you are likely losing at least a few more if the flop comes all unders.

[Percula]

You have to fold the flop. He was wearing a big flashing sign "QUADS".

There is a point where you have to leave the math behind and play the player and this is a clear example. It is a skill best developed in live play.

Better luck next time!

[augie00]

Fold pf. Even on a rag flop this hand would be tough to play. You don't have that many chips and calling off 1/8th of your stack praying for a set is generally a bad play I think.

[transmitt]

Last year I was at Foxwoods playing in a WPT qualifier and had AA with a KKx flop. A guy was small betting enough the entire way to keep me in the pot (He was betting something like 100 chips into a 1,000 pot and my stack was healthy) he was sitting to my left, and I could smell the King something in his hand. The A hit the river, he bet I raised modestly, he pushed and I take it down over his trips. I've played a good number of live tournaments and this was the only time I got the shakes--while I was raking it up. So, maybe just maybe I recognize a monster here because of the experience, but in reality, I'm probably railing it too.