Should you ever fold a 4-flush draw?

[@bsolute_luck]

A couple steps i need help with. first, it is said the flush comes in 35% of the time. where is this number figured because i keep messing it up. i thought it was: (9/47)+(9/46)= 38.7% ?

okay so the example then is:

Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG limps, folds to MP4, <font color="red">MP4 raises</font>, fold to Hero, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop 6.5SB: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG checks, <font color="red">MP4 bets</font>, <font color="blue">Hero..??</font>

IF UTG calls after us, we're still putting in 33% of the money on a 35% draw in a small pot. If UTG folds, now we're putting in 50% of the money.

If the turn is say the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and UTG folded, now you're getting 1:5.5 i'm just curious as i'm told that if you never fold a 4-flush draw, it isn't a major leak.

An additional question would be if it is HU against a habitual blind stealer first in from LP. just fix the above situation and remove UTG altogether. i don't think call a raise from MP4 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a problem, but maybe it is. the same flop, now what?

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
A couple steps i need help with. first, it is said the flush comes in 35% of the time. where is this number figured because i keep messing it up. i thought it was: (9/47)+(9/46)= 38.7% ?

okay so the example then is:

Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG limps, folds to MP4, <font color="red">MP4 raises</font>, fold to Hero, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Flop 6.5SB: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG checks, <font color="red">MP4 bets</font>, <font color="blue">Hero..??</font>

IF UTG calls after us, we're still putting in 33% of the money on a 35% draw in a small pot. If UTG folds, now we're putting in 50% of the money.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what? All that means is that HU you don't have a pot equity edge, so you shouldn't be pumping. You're still getting 7.5-1 on your call (if UTG folds) when you're only a 4-1 underdog to make your hand on the next card. Easy call and clearly +EV.

[ QUOTE ]
If the turn is say the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and UTG folded, now you're getting 1:5.5

[/ QUOTE ]

Right. Youre getting 5.5:1 odds on your call when you're only a 4:1 dog. Again, a call is clearly +EV.

I know you know the difference between pot equity and pot odds, so I'm not real sure what the problem is.

[Piiop]

[ QUOTE ]
9/47)+(9/46)= 38.7% ?


[/ QUOTE ]

(9/47) + (38/47)(9/46) = 35%

(9/47) is chance of it hitting on the flop. (38/47)(9/46) is the chance of missing on the flop AND hitting on the river.

Jrz already basically said the other stuff. You're getting the correct odds to call for your draw. It's that simple.

[@bsolute_luck]

[ QUOTE ]
so I'm not real sure what the problem is.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is no problem. i was just curious. i wanted to know where the 35% came from (got that answered).

now- what about HU? does anything change in our figuring? same situation:

Hero in BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
folded to MP4, <font color=" red">MP4 raises</font>, folded to Hero, Hero calls.

Flop 4.5SB 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">MP4 bets</font>, <font color="blue">Hero...??</font>

i guess with implied odds we're getting barely enough to call right? i know this is pretty elementary, but i'd rather not do things "just because 2+2 tells me"- so i wanted to double check my thinking. thanks for the help anyways [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Dave G.]

[ QUOTE ]
IF UTG calls after us, we're still putting in 33% of the money on a 35% draw in a small pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're confusing pot equity and pot odds. Equity determines when you can raise for value. It's what you use to decide between calling and raising. When your equity is greater than your pot contribution, you have an equity edge, and you can raise for value. Pot odds are what you use to decide between calling and folding.

Here, you don't have enough equity to raise for value because UTG may fold for 2 cold, but getting 7.5:1, you easily have enough odds with your flush draw to call. So you call. Even if UTG folds, it's a profitable call. Note that if you were acting last, you DO have enough equity to raise because both players will likely call it (plus you get a free card a good percentage of the time too).

If it's HU, nothing changes about how you play the hand on the flop. 87s is very unlikely to win unimproved especially with A and K on the board (favourite blind stealing hands). He's not going to fold lightly. You are playing for flush value only, so you use the pot odds to determine whether or not you should call.

Again, you don't have enough equity to raise for value, so it's either call or fold. Pot odds will lead the way.

[Marquis]

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Should you ever fold a 4-flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Heads up on the turn in an unraised pot with no bets put in on the flop, yes. There are other weird situations, none of which come up very often.

Edit: I suppose even if there were bets put in on the flop in my heads-up example, you wouldn't have odds to call on the turn.

[jrz1972]

In the second example (87s vs. a board of AK3 with two of your flush), you're being offered 5.5:1 odds on a call. You're about a 4:1 underdog to make your flush on the next card, so the immediate odds warrant a call. In other words, even if you knew that your opponent would instantly open-fold the turn if another spade came off, it would still be worth calling the flop.

When you add implied odds, this call is even more +EV. Suppose you call this bet and you hit your flush on the turn. A reasonable expectation is that your opponent will bet, you'll raise, and he'll call. He calls your river bet. That's 6 more sbs you get off villian, which makes your implied odds 11.5:1. That makes your call insanely profitable.

Okay granted those implied odds should be discounted a bit to reflect the fact that you might hit your flush and still lose if your opponent happens to have a bigger flush draw (unlikely here) or if your opponent fills up on the river. But still.

When you flop a flush draw, you will almost always be getting the immediate odds to go to the river. Even when you don't have the right immediate odds, implied odds will more than make up the difference. That's why its almost always right to chase your flush draw all the way.

[Jaran]

The ~35% is your pot equity, and shows whether you should bet/raise. For calling, look to your pot odds. In your example, you are getting 7.5:1 on a ~4.5:1 shot...easy call.

-Jaran